Alavés vs Valencia (La Liga): odds and picks 20.10.2025

This match smells like a 1-0 result at Mendizorroza. Alavés comes in with that home reliability that forces you to fight for 90 minutes; Valencia, in search of continuity and with some injuries at the back that will affect them.

I foresee a moderate pace, numerous second plays, and significant set pieces. If the Babazorros strike first, it will be an uphill battle for Corberán’s team.

Date, time and where to watch

• Competition: LaLiga (Matchday 9)
• Date: Monday, 20 October 2025

Odds on the winner (1X2)

How Alavés are doing

The team has gained experience at home: they compete more cohesively, recover high when necessary and do not lose their composure when in the lead. They are coming off a 3–1 win over Elche and their recent league form shows a pattern of low scores, with a few slip-ups away from home that do not detract from their good form in Vitoria.

In their last five LaLiga games: 1W–1D–3L (win vs Elche, draw at Getafe, defeats against Mallorca, Sevilla and Athletic).

Key players (momentum):

• Antonio Blanco. Both a barometer and a broom, he leads in recoveries and provides balance to press high up the pitch without breaking down.
• Carlos Vicente. He draws fouls and corners; gold in a game of details. The team’s top scorer with three goals.
• Toni Martínez. He pins centre-backs and attacks the near post: if they feed him crosses, he appears. He comes in with confidence after scoring against Elche.

Impressions: when Alavés strikes first at Mendizorroza, they know how to shut the door. They lack consistency away from home, but at their stadium the team feels comfortable defending deep and breaking quickly after winning the ball back.

How Valencia are doing

A team under construction. The idea is visible at times, but inconsistency away from home is penalising them.

Last time out, they lost 2–1 in Girona, and before that they had a defeat to Oviedo (1–2), a draw in Cornellà (2–2) and a great win against Athletic (2–0), as well as a heavy 0–6 defeat in Barcelona.

They are 1–1–3 in their last five league games: flashes of productivity and problems sustaining 90 minutes.

Key players (momentum):

• Hugo Duro. His first run changes the game; if he is not found, Valencia loses its edge.
• José Gayà. Running forward and delivering a dangerous cross: this is the clearest way to create chances away from Mestalla when he is on form.
• Diego López. They need that delivery into the box to avoid relying solely on crosses from the wings.

Physical condition: Diakhaby is out (hamstring); Ugrinic is carrying a knee injury but is expected to play; Thierry is gradually returning; Gayà is already training normally. The defence, therefore, will be slightly reshuffled.

Recent head-to-head matches

Mendizorroza has been a difficult place for Valencia lately: Alavés 1–0 Valencia (14/05/2025) and before that 0–1 at Mestalla (05/05/2024); the only recent joy for the Che was the 2–2 draw in December 2024.

There is a tendency for low-scoring games, and whoever strikes first tends to win.

Quick summary

• Context: Alavés more recognisable at home; Valencia vulnerable away and with defensive absences.
• Expected pace: medium, lots of second plays, decisive set pieces.
• H2H in Vitoria: close results and recent home advantage.
• Odds: slight favouritism for Babazorro due to home form + opponent’s physical condition.

Our prediction

My approach: main stake on the Asian Under and a fraction on 1 & U3.5. I will adjust the sizes when the line-ups are announced and we confirm whether Ugrinic and Gayà are 100% fit.