Athletic Club vs Qarabağ FK (Champions League): odds and picks 22.10.2025

I have a good feeling about this match. Athletic Club is back in the group stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League after a very solid season (fourth in La Liga 2024-25) and should impose its European hierarchy at its San Mamés stadium.

For their part, Qarabağ FK are on a roll, with two wins in their first two group matches — including a 3-2 comeback against SL Benfica in Lisbon — which gives them confidence away from home.

Athletic lacks consistency in Europe in this type of match against teams that come to play with discipline, as will be the case with Qarabağ, which also has no history of matches against the Basques (this will be the first official match between the two sides).

Therefore, although I see Athletic as favourites, the context suggests that it could be difficult to open up the game and that their opponents will hold out. It is also key that Athletic must improve on their start in this group: for example, they lost 2-0 to Arsenal FC.

Date, time and where to watch the match

• Competition: UEFA Champions League, Matchday 3
• Date: 22 October 2025

Odds for the winner of Athletic vs Qarabağ

Key factors to consider

• Athletic dominate at home and have a significant advantage at San Mamés, but they are coming off the back of poor European results and need to start picking up points in the group.
• Qarabağ arrives with very positive momentum in Europe: it won its first two group matches, which gives it confidence to stand up to its opponent.
• Although Athletic are favourites, their opponents’ surprise factor and defensive solidity could limit the home side; in addition, Athletic may start under some pressure and take time to get ahead.
• Tactically, Athletic will try to control the game, move quickly and take advantage of the wings, while Qarabağ will focus on organisation, quick transitions after winning the ball and confidence in their transitions.

Key players

• For Athletic, I would pick Oihan Sancet. He was the club’s top scorer last season (15 in La Liga 2024-25), and his form could make the difference when the game is evenly matched. His ability to break lines and create danger is fundamental.
• For Qarabağ, I would highlight Abdellah Zoubir, who scored in the 2-0 victory over FC Copenhagen, demonstrating his offensive ability at important moments. His experience in Europe can bring solidity and danger to the visitors.

Prediction

Personally, I think Athletic will win, but it won’t be a walk in the park: 2-0 or 3-0 seems like a plausible score. That’s why I’m leaning towards the second option as a ‘bonus’ if you feel like taking a bit more of a risk.