Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna (La Liga): odds and picks 18.10.2025

A big game at the Metropolitano between Atlético, who are in good form, and Osasuna, who need to end their poor run away from home. I expect Atlético to dominate possession and apply sustained pressure after losing the ball, conceding little on their own turf.

Key factors: Julián Álvarez’s form and Oblak’s reliability at home, against an Osasuna side that struggles away but has competed well in recent head-to-head matches. Set pieces and transitions will be decisive; if Atleti strikes first, the match will likely end in a low-scoring affair.

Date, time and where to watch the match

• Competition: LaLiga (Matchday 9)
• Date and time: Saturday 18 October 2025

Odds for the winner of Atlético vs Osasuna

Atlético Madrid analysis

Atlético are solid at the Metropolitano and lively up front. Simeone’s team have produced a lot at home and, although they don’t keep clean sheets, they manage the game well and strike at key moments.

Probable line-up

Oblak; Llorente, Giménez, Hancko, Lenglet, Galán; Koke, Gallagher, Barrios/Almada; Griezmann, J. Álvarez/Sorloth.

Simeone has been experimenting with a five-man defence and set pieces, with Cardoso being rested due to an ankle injury. Expect a two-man attack with Griezmann playing close to the number 9 to attack the spaces.

Key players

• Julián Álvarez. He arrives with high production (goals + xG) and moves well between centre-back and full-back: Atleti’s first shot usually goes through him.
• Antoine Griezmann. He creates space between the lines and speeds up transitions; if he receives the ball facing goal, Atleti accelerates.
• Koke/Gallagher. The pair set the pace and pressure after losing possession; key to closing down Osasuna and activating crosses from the wings.
• Oblak. Aerial security against Osasuna’s crosses and balls to Budimir.

Breaking news

Simeone has focused on strengthening the defence and high pressure. Johnny Cardoso did not train due to an injury; Lenglet could be available after a near suspension; Hancko trained separately for part of the week. Last-minute adjustments may determine whether a 4 or 5-man defence is used.

Atlético’s current situation in LaLiga

Atleti are on a good scoring run and are in the top 3 at home this season. In their last five games, they have scored in every game and secured prestigious victories (including a home win), although they have also conceded goals.

At home, their goal difference and offensive production are higher than their away average, reinforcing their pattern of controlling games and creating clear chances.

Osasuna analysis

Alessio Lisci’s side are competitive, but they have a problem: they struggle away from El Sadar, conceding in every away game. Even so, they have shown that they can cause Atleti problems in recent encounters.

Probable line-up

Sergio Herrera; Bretones, Catena, Boyomo, Rosier; Moncayola, Torró; Rubén García, Moi Gómez, Budimir.

Plan: midfield block, crosses to Budimir and transitions with wingers.

Key players

• Ante Budimir. A reference point for attacking and finishing; his duel with the centre-backs will determine Navarre’s effectiveness.
• Moncayola. He arrives as the team’s best creator of “big chances”; vital in second plays.
• Rosier. Projection down the wing to charge into the area and force side fouls.
• Sergio Herrera. High number of saves; if he holds out in the early minutes, Osasuna will gain confidence.

Latest news

Aimar Oroz remains sidelined and Juan Cruz is doubtful due to muscle discomfort.

Part of the week included training with youth players; Budimir has already rejoined the team after the international break. This context may push Lisci towards a more physical starting eleven.

Osasuna’s current situation in LaLiga

Away from home, they are experiencing their worst start in years: four consecutive league defeats on the road. In their last five LaLiga matches, they have scored few goals and conceded in all of them, struggling to hold the block low when the opposition attacks from the wings.

On the plus side, they compete better in big games than the table suggests and have a recent positive record against Atleti.

Atlético vs Osasuna: head-to-head

The last few encounters have been more evenly matched than usual: Atlético 1–0 Osasuna (12/01/2025) and Osasuna 2–0 Atlético (15/05/2025), in addition to Osasuna’s 1–4 win in Madrid in May 2024.

Historically, Atleti dominates the H2H, but Osasuna has scraped together some impressive victories recently, which calls for maximum respect for Lisci’s plan.

Managers: Diego Simeone vs Alessio Lisci

Without too many direct duels on the benches, it is noteworthy that Lisci already beat Atlético at the Metropolitano with Levante (0–1, 2022).

He now arrives with an Osasuna side looking for their first away win; Simeone, meanwhile, has been working on solidity at the back this week.

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

The Technical Committee of Referees has appointed Isidro Díaz de Mera for this match. He refereed Atlético 1–0 Osasuna on 12 January 2025 at this same stadium. A good precedent for a match with few concessions and a ‘controlled’ pace.

Summary: key facts

• Atlético: third best home team of the season; has scored in each of its last five matches.
• Osasuna: 4 consecutive away defeats in the league; has conceded in all of its away games.
• Probable absences: Cardoso (knock), possible changes in Atleti’s defence; Oroz and Torró absent for Osasuna; Juan Cruz doubtful.
• Recent H2H evenly matched (1–0, 0–2, 1–4 in the last three); historical advantage for Rojiblancos.
• Referee: Díaz de Mera, who has already refereed an Atleti–Osasuna match with a narrow home win.

Our prediction for Atlético vs Osasuna