Barcelona vs Girona (La Liga): odds and picks 18.10.2025

A Catalan derby with a very clear context: Barça are second in the table and have been hurt by the break (Lewandowski is confirmed out and there are doubts about the wingers), while Míchel’s Girona visit Montjuïc with the intention of resisting and hitting back on the counter. I expect Barça to dominate the game, but with less bite than in other phases.

Key factors: control at the back with De Jong–Pedri, width to activate Lamine/Fermín between the lines and a visiting plan focused on protecting areas and breaking out with Tsygankov/Joel Roca. If the first goal takes a while to come, the game could become tight and hinge on set pieces.

Date, time and where to watch the match

• Competition: LALIGA EA SPORTS (Matchday 9)
• Date and time: Saturday 18 October 2025

Odds for the winner of Barcelona vs Girona

Analysis Barcelona

A dominant team in possession with clear automatisms under Hansi Flick. Without Lewandowski, the volume of shots in the box may drop, but they gain mobility in the final third with support from Fermín and diagonal runs from Lamine.

Probable line-up

Szcnzesny; Koundé, Eric Garcia, Cubarsí, Balde; Frenkie de Jong, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Fermín López, Rashford, Ferran Torres.

Alternatives: Raphinha if he is cleared to play; Gündoğan as an inside forward if Flick is looking for more control.

Key players

• Pedri. Pace, final pass and pause in the opponent’s half; if he connects up front, Barça accelerates.
• Fermín López. He gets into the box with good timing and can score from the second line.
• Ferran. Mobility to pin centre-backs and free up space for Rashford/Lamine’s diagonal runs.
• Frenkie de Jong. Support and drive to break Míchel’s initial pressure.

Latest news

Lewandowski is out with a hamstring injury; Raphinha is racing against time and is a serious doubt; Fermín is set to return and Lamine is already training with the group. Dani Olmo remains sidelined. The outlook suggests a more “associative” starting eleven and less focus on the area.

Barcelona’s current situation in LaLiga

Second in the table and solid at home. Recent pattern: high territorial control and few goals conceded, with peaks of offensive production when they take an early lead. Without their starting number 9, the team relies more on distributed goals and set pieces.

Girona analysis

Míchel has rebuilt a competitive side that, away from home, prioritises security and quick transitions. The wings are their escape route, with Daley Blind providing judgement on the break.

Probable line-up

Gazzaniga; Arnau Martínez, Vítor Reis, Daley Blind, Alex Moreno; Solis, Witsel; Bryan Gil, Joel Roca, Vladyslav Vanat.

Key players

• Alex Moreno. Barometer; if he can overcome the initial pressure, Girona can breathe easy and take the lead.
• Bryan Gil. A source of imbalance and outside shooting; a threat in transition.
• Gazzaniga. When under siege, his saves keep the team going.

Latest news

Girona have several injuries to manage after the break. Joel Roca is set to return after coming back fresh from the Under-20s; there are question marks over some key players that Míchel will assess in the build-up.

Girona’s current situation in LALIGA

An inconsistent run and deficits away from home: fewer goals and more concessions in their own area. The plan at Montjuïc should be reactive, with compact lines, reducing crosses to the far post and relying on a clean transition.

Barcelona vs Girona: head-to-head

In the five most recent league encounters: Barça 3W – Girona 2W – 0D, with two Barça wins (4-1 and 4-1) and a surprising 2-4 win for Girona in 2023.

Trend: when Barça scores first, the game falls apart; if the 0-0 score line lasts, Girona competes better.

Summary: key facts

• Barça absentees: Lewandowski (confirmed); Raphinha is doubtful; Fermín and Lamine are close to returning.
• Barça’s plan: more mobility and spread the goals around, fewer fixed reference points.
• Girona’s plan: mid-low block, transitions down the right and set pieces.
• Recent H2H: 3-2 to Barça in the last five.
• Market: home favouritism; better value alternatives in handicaps or under.

My prediction for Barcelona vs Girona