United States Grand Prix: odds and picks 19.10.2025

I return to Austin with the feeling that COTA rewards well-rounded cars: good aerodynamic efficiency for the S-bends in the first sector and clean traction for the final stage.

In 2025, the McLaren–Red Bull battle, with Ferrari lurking in the background, is heating up, with young drivers at the helm. Piastri leads the World Championship ahead of Norris, with Verstappen closing in.

Key factors: a weekend with a sprint race, demanding asphalt on long corners and heavy braking, and typically dry and warm weather for October in Texas.

In addition, recent history here reminds us that Ferrari won in 2024, while Verstappen dominated in 2023, so the picture is not black and white.

Information: date, time and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Circuit of the Americas (Austin)
• Race date and time: Sunday 19 October, 19:00
• Qualifying: Saturday 18 October

Odds on the winner of the United States Grand Prix

My reading of the market puts Verstappen as the favourite, but with a narrow margin over Norris and Piastri. The equality of 2025 and the Sprint narrow the gap: any detail in qualifying could turn the script upside down.

Latest odds on the podium favourites

For me, the strongest trio is as follows: Piastri for overall consistency and points, Norris for peak pace over one lap and in short stints, and Verstappen for his ability to manage and execute on long Sundays.

The actual order will depend on the start and how the tyres hold up after the Sprint.

Oscar Piastri: current situation and chances

Piastri is having a mature season: he leads the championship thanks to his consistency on Sundays and generally clean qualifying.

At COTA, I particularly value his finesse in quick direction changes; the first sector punishes any hesitation, and that’s where the 2025 McLaren usually runs like clockwork.

His Achilles heel may be temperature management after traffic in the final sector, but his learning curve in 2024–2025 has been very steep. He does not yet have a brilliant track record in Austin, although McLaren’s race pace here has historically been competitive and in 2024 they were already in the top five.

If it starts in the first two rows, I see it as having a real chance of victory, provided it makes a clean pit stop and does not get stuck behind cars with slower top speeds before the back straight. A podium finish is very likely; victory is plausible.

Max Verstappen

With Verstappen, I never talk about “automatic favourite” in 2025, but I do talk about Sunday’s benchmark: he executes pit stops, undercuts and relaunches with a precision that often makes the difference at COTA.

He won here in 2023 and, although 2024 belonged to Ferrari, his Red Bull usually finds race pace even when starting from further back.

The key will be where he finishes after the Sprint and whether he can avoid the DRS train in the first third. In clean air, his management of the medium tyre is golden, and the car has improved traction in T1-type elevation changes and the 12-15 sequence. If he secures the front row, victory is within reach.

From second place, the most likely scenario is a podium finish with a chance of victory if there is a safety car.

Lando Norris

Norris arrives with perhaps the most dangerous single-lap speed of the group. In Austin, that pays off, because starting at the front allows you to save your tyres in the ‘esses’ without turbulence.

In 2024, he lost the podium due to a penalty, but the pure pace was there; and in 2023, he was already second on the track behind Verstappen.

His McLaren is very stable under quick support and has good traction in the stadium, where rear tyre consumption is decided. I’ll give him a victory “ceiling” if he converts pole or the front row and controls the first stint; otherwise, the risk is getting caught up in DRS trains where his top speed is not always the best of the top three.

Strategic management and pit stops are crucial for him. A podium finish is very feasible; victory is within reach.

Circuit conditions and weather forecast

COTA is 5.513 km, 20 corners, steep elevation changes and two DRS zones (back straight and main straight). Medium-high degradation: the first sector is hard on the front tyres and the stadium punishes traction.

The race is 56 laps long; the classic pit stop window opens around lap 16-20 if it is a one-stop race.

The weather helps: October is warm and stable in Texas, with very little rain forecast and highs around 28–32 °C in Austin.

This pushes for harder compounds in long runs and can extend the undercut if the asphalt heats up. Crosswinds on the climb to T1 and in the initial link can move the rear; watch out for the Sunday afternoon gust.

Comparison between leading teams

• McLaren arrives as the most well-rounded team: an agile car in direction changes and good degradation when the track temperature rises.
• Red Bull has regained its Sunday consistency and usually finds pace in dirty air, which is very useful for catching up after the Sprint.
• Ferrari, for its part, brings positive momentum to Austin thanks to its 1-2 finish in 2024 and traction that always pays off here in the stadium area.

In terms of reliability, I don’t see any serious alarms for any of the three; the difference will be in the efficiency of the rear wing chosen (drag vs. downforce) and in the pit stop execution.

If McLaren nails the window, it is the car to beat in the middle stint; if the track gets ‘oily’ and graining decreases, Red Bull enters its comfort zone. Ferrari will need a clean track to convert pace into results.

Latest results in the United States Grand Prix

The last two years paint a mixed picture: 2023 went to Verstappen with Norris and Sainz on the podium, while 2024 smiled on Ferrari with Leclerc ahead of Sainz and Verstappen third. In the 2024 Sprint, Max took the mini-victory.

In summary: COTA is unpredictable, but qualifying high up the grid is still half the battle.

Summary of key factors for this GP

• Asphalt and tyres: high lateral demands in the ‘esses’; watch the rear in the stadium.
• Set-up: medium rear wing; car that rotates well under quick support.
• Reliability: aggressive kerbs and bumps, watch out for suspension.
• Starting positions: starting on the front row is worth its weight in gold for clean air management.
• Strategies: 1–2 stops depending on temperature; strong undercut with a hot track.
• Weather risk/safety car: low probability of rain; safety car possible due to narrow run-off areas in sector 3.

United States Grand Prix: my prediction