2025 Qatar Grand Prix: odds and picks 30.11.2025

The 2025 Qatar Grand Prix is the penultimate race of the season, with the World Championship in full swing. Lando Norris leads the overall standings with 390 points, while Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen are tied at 366, following the Las Vegas earthquake with McLaren’s double disqualification. McLaren already has the constructors’ title in the bag, but the drivers’ title could be decided in Lusail.

Lusail is once again a key venue: a 5.419 km circuit, 57 laps, the last sprint format race and, in addition, with very restrictive tyre regulations following the wear problems of previous years. Pirelli and the FIA have imposed a maximum of 25 laps per set, which forces at least two pit stops during the race and favours cars that are gentler on their tyres.

All this on a track with extremely high lateral loads and a warm desert night that can destroy the strategy of anyone who makes a mistake.

Information: date, time and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Lusail International Circuit (Lusail, 5.419 km, 57 laps)
• Race date: Sunday 30 November
• Qualifying: Saturday 29 November

Odds on the winner of the Qatar Grand Prix

The market has Max Verstappen as the favourite to win in Lusail, ahead of Norris and Piastri. The Dutchman arrives on a roll after winning in Las Vegas and having won in Qatar in 2023 and 2024, while McLaren is relying on the pure pace of a dominant car in 2025. Russell and Leclerc appear as outsiders.

Indicative odds table for the winner (decimal format):

Latest news on the podium favourites

The fight for the podium in Qatar centres on Verstappen, Norris and Piastri. Norris arrives affected by the disqualification in Las Vegas but remains the leader and with a margin to seal the title. Verstappen, on the other hand, faces a circuit where he has won the last two editions and feels particularly strong. Piastri combines one-lap speed, great management in fast corners and an excellent track record at Lusail, with wins in previous sprints.

Max Verstappen

Verstappen arrives in Qatar in high spirits: victory in Las Vegas, coupled with McLaren’s double disqualification, has put him back in the title fight when it seemed almost impossible. He is tied on points with Piastri and 24 points behind Norris, but with a car that has regained much of its edge in recent races. Red Bull is not as dominant as it was in 2023–2024, but the RB21 remains very efficient in medium and high-speed corners, with excellent traction out of the long chases at Lusail.

Its record here is impeccable: two consecutive victories (2023 and 2024), all three races in Qatar won from the front row and a devastating pace in clean air. In addition, the 25-lap limit per set of tyres works in its favour: its aggressive driving style is better suited when there is no need to pamper the tyres during endless stints. If Red Bull nails the qualifying and the temperature management of the front right tyre, Verstappen is the man to beat for the win… and to force the title to be decided in Abu Dhabi.

Lando Norris

Norris arrives in Lusail in a curious position: leader of the World Championship and winner of seven races this season, but with the psychological blow of having lost an important podium in Las Vegas due to a technical detail. Even so, his season has been outstanding, with 17 podiums and a consistency that explains McLaren’s dominance in the constructors’ championship. The MCL40B has been the most complete car of the year, particularly strong in fast corners, high-speed traction and tyre management under load.

Qatar is also a track where McLaren already knows how to go fast: Piastri won the sprint in 2023 and 2024, and Norris set the fastest lap of the race last year. The tricky part for Lando is the combination of sprint, heat and lap restrictions per race: he will have to balance the risk in the sprint — where many points are awarded — with the bigger goal on Sunday. If McLaren is not forced to raise the car too much to avoid another flat-bottom wear problem, Norris should have more than enough pace to fight for the win or, at the very least, a podium finish that will put him well on track for the title.

Oscar Piastri

Piastri is the third wheel, but he is no mere spectator. He has the same number of victories as Norris in 2025 and has already proven that Lusail suits him perfectly: he won the sprint in 2023 — where Verstappen was also crowned three-time champion — and repeated his victory on Saturday in 2024, always very strong in the fast corner sequences of the second sector. His strong point is his precision in cornering and his ability to maintain a very high minimum speed without wearing out his tyres.

He is tied with Verstappen in the championship and has a car he knows perfectly well. The big challenge for Piastri will be managing the pressure: a victory here puts him right in the fight for the title in Abu Dhabi, but a mistake in the sprint or at the start on Sunday could leave him trailing behind his own teammate. If he starts from the first or second row, his real chance of victory is very high; from further back, it will depend on the race being broken up strategically due to the tyre lap limit or a possible safety car.

Circuit conditions and weather forecast

Lusail is a 5.419 km circuit with 16 medium and high-speed corners, laid out almost like a large F1 oval with a very long main straight of just over a kilometre and a single DRS zone on that straight. The lap is very fluid, with few heavy braking points and an endless sequence of right-hand corners that are particularly hard on the front left tyre. With 57 laps, the track becomes a real physical centrifuge for the drivers.

The big news for 2025 is the restrictions: Pirelli is bringing the hardest range (C1–C2–C3) and the FIA is limiting each set to a maximum of 25 laps, following the experiences of extreme wear and punctures in 2021 and the physical suffering of 2023. This forces at least two pit stops and opens the door to very aggressive stints, without so much management. In terms of weather, a stable, dry weekend is expected, with highs around 28–29 °C and nights around 20 °C, with no serious threat of rain. Temperatures will be high, but somewhat milder than in October, which should help tyre life… although the lateral load will remain brutal.

Comparison between leading teams

McLaren arrives as the global benchmark for the season: more wins, more podiums and better average pace than anyone else. The car is very strong in high-energy corners, where it can turn with a lot of load without penalising too much on the straights. Its Achilles heel in Qatar is not so much pure performance as risk management: with the title at stake, the pit wall will have to decide how far to push the car’s advantage without compromising reliability or repeating an episode of excessive flat-bottom wear as in Las Vegas.

Red Bull appears slightly behind in overall pace, but better positioned for this particular circuit. The RB21 performs very well with a lot of lateral load and little heavy braking, and the team has been masters of short stints and aggressive undercuts for years. In addition, their track record in Qatar is impeccable, with two consecutive wins for Verstappen and proven mechanics in hot conditions. If they find the right window of height and stiffness to avoid problems with the flat bottom, they could be the car to beat on Sunday.

Mercedes is positioned as the third force, but a dangerous one. The W16 has not had the sparkle of other years, although Russell and Antonelli have maximised points with a car that is very stable in fast corners and reasonably kind on hard tyres. Lusail, however, is not a track with big braking points where they normally excel, but one that requires constant support: there they could suffer a little more against McLaren and Red Bull. In their favour, they tend to perform very well in chaotic races with multiple pit stops, which is exactly the scenario predicted by the tyre regulations for this weekend.

Latest results in the Qatar Grand Prix

Qatar’s history in F1 is short but very clear in terms of pattern: whoever dominates the pace in clean air dominates the race.

In 2021, Lewis Hamilton swept the board with Mercedes, leading every lap and cutting points off Verstappen, who was second, with Alonso spectacularly third on his return to the podium. It was also a race marked by tyre problems for cars that tried to go for a single stop.

After a hiatus in 2022, Qatar returned in 2023 with a sprint format: Verstappen secured his third world title there and won Sunday’s race from pole position, with McLaren very strong around him.

In 2024, the script was repeated: sprint for Piastri, Sunday victory for Verstappen ahead of Leclerc and the Australian himself, in a race with three safety cars and extremely high tyre wear.

Overall, the circuit has been a stronghold for Red Bull and Verstappen, with McLaren as a strong alternative in terms of pace, and Mercedes and Ferrari a step behind on Sunday despite flashes of brilliance in qualifying.

Summary of the key factors for this GP

• Tyre lap limit: maximum 25 laps per set, which forces a minimum of two stops and penalises any attempt to ‘save’ tyres to an extreme degree. Whoever gets the compound distribution (hard/medium) right will have a big advantage.
• Sprint format: there are important points at stake on Saturday, with only one free practice session to fine-tune the car. A mistake in the sprint can compromise Sunday, but it can also serve as a strategy laboratory.
• Physical management and degradation: the fast, linked corners make Lusail a gruelling test for drivers and tyres. Any car that mistreats the front left is doomed to very short stints or to losing pace at the end of each stint.
• Grid position: in Qatar, the race has almost always been won from the front rows; overtaking is possible, but dirty air in the linked corners makes it difficult to catch up unless there is a big difference in pace or help from a safety car.
• Car setup: relatively low rear wing downforce will be used to maximise straight-line speed, but without sacrificing downforce in the second sector. The balance between top speed and stability will be decisive in the McLaren-Red Bull battle.
• McLaren’s risk management: with Norris in a position to clinch the title, the team may be somewhat more conservative in its strategy, compared to Verstappen, who has virtually nothing to lose and can opt for aggressive undercuts or shorter stint sequences.
• Possible safety cars or VSCs: the race’s history includes several neutralisations due to incidents and debris on the track; with the grid so tight, a neutralisation at the right moment could make or break any two-stop strategy.

2025 Qatar Grand Prix: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Max Verstappen finishes on the podium. Odds 1.30

The Dutchman is the favourite in the odds, with two previous wins at Lusail and a very competitive Red Bull in high lateral load conditions. The lap limit per set reduces the risk of extreme degradation and allows him to push his pace without so much management. Barring a mess at the start or a mechanical problem, his most logical scenario is a top 3 finish.

BetoThe bold one

Oscar Piastri to win. Odds 7.00

The Australian has won the last two sprints in Qatar and is in his element on this type of fast track. If McLaren manages to adjust the car’s height without compromising the flat bottom and Piastri qualifies on the front row, a race with multiple pit stops and a possible safety car could play completely in his favour, allowing him to manage the short stints better than anyone else and surprise Verstappen and Norris in the direct fight for victory.