Alavés vs Barcelona (La Liga): odds and bets 13.05.2026

A match with a lot at stake, but for very different reasons: Alavés are desperate to escape the relegation zone, whilst Barça, for their part, usually approach these kinds of away games with the obligation to pick up points, no excuses. At Mendizorroza, moreover, matches are rarely ‘pretty’: there’s physical contact, the rhythm is disjointed and there’s a lot of battle for second balls.

For me, the key lies in whether Alavés can make the match uncomfortable (set-pieces, duels, fouls) and how Barcelona adapt if they are short of pure wingers. If Barça can’t break down the flanks, they tend to attack more centrally, overload the box with full-backs and generate a steady stream of shots and corners. And that’s where, through sheer volume, the goal usually ends up coming.

Alavés

I see Alavés in total survival mode. When a team is under pressure at the back, their football becomes very context-dependent: more intensity than build-up play, more crosses and more set-pieces than long combinations. At home, that’s noticeable. Mendizorroza pushes, the team presses in duels and, if the opposition doesn’t match that energy, they quickly put you in an uncomfortable game.

Alavés’s problem is twofold. Firstly, consistency: they struggle to hold onto leads and have periods where they fall apart, especially if forced to chase the ball back. Secondly, the attacking plan relies heavily on holding up play against centre-backs and winning second balls. If they don’t have their target man or he’s injured, they lose their outlet and any real threat behind the defence. The team then ends up defending too long near their own area, and against Barça that’s poison: the longer they pin you back, the more likely a goal will come from their persistence.

In terms of ‘weak spots to exploit’, I’ve noticed that Alavés tend to rack up cards when the game is slipping away from them: if they have to chase for long periods, tactical fouls and yellow cards for disrupting transitions start to pile up. If Barça score early, the situation becomes even more challenging.

Barcelona

Barcelona come into this with that aura of a team that, even when not at their best, find a way to win. When Barça dictate the tempo, they usually do so through possession: they pin you back in your own half, force you to shift shape and keep creating chances until the first one goes in. In matches like this, I always look for patience: if they don’t rush things, they end up creating clear-cut chances.

That said, if they’re missing game-changing wingers, the style of attack changes. You see less pure one-on-one play and more central combination play, more attacks from the second line and more crosses from the flanks. That’s not necessarily a bad thing to bet on: it usually increases the number of shots and presence in the box, and the opposition ends up conceding corners and free-kicks near the box due to the accumulation of defensive situations.

The other key is mental: Barça know that, if they take the lead, they force Alavés to open up a bit. And that’s when the game breaks open, spaces appear and Barça usually capitalise. In short: I expect a dominant Barça, perhaps with a few sluggish spells, but with enough quality and consistency to win the match if they stay focused.