Alavés vs Real Madrid (La Liga): odds and picks 14.12.2025

Alavés and Real Madrid face off on Sunday 14 December at Mendizorroza, in a key match for two teams arriving in very different form: Alavés are 11th with 18 points, while Madrid are 2nd with 36, chasing Barça in the title race.

The context is very important: Alavés is coming off a 1-0 win over Real Sociedad at home, ending a losing streak and reinforcing its image as a tough team to beat at home. Madrid, on the other hand, are struggling: they lost to Celta in La Liga, fell to City in the Champions League and have only won two of their last eight games, in addition to a plague of injuries and suspensions that leaves Xabi Alonso with virtually no defenders available for this clash. Given this scenario, I expect a much more evenly matched game than the odds suggest.

Alavés

Alavés comes into this match in high spirits. The 1-0 win against Real Sociedad in the previous matchday, with a goal from Boyé from the penalty spot, not only ended a run of three consecutive defeats, but also showed once again that Mendizorroza is a tough place to play. In La Liga, the Vitoria-based side are mid-table (11th with 18 points), with a fairly balanced record: 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats.

At home, the numbers are more than respectable: Alavés has 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in its last 7 home games, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and less than 1 conceded per game. In other words, it is not a team that dominates, but it is very competitive and concedes few goals, supported by a well-organised defence and a strong atmosphere in the stands.

Offensively, the burden falls on Lucas Boyé, Carlos Vicente and Toni Martínez, the team’s top scorers. The likely starting eleven is a 4-1-4-1 with Raúl Fernández in goal; Tenaglia and Pacheco in central defence; a positional midfielder such as Antonio Blanco and ahead of him a group of skilful midfielders (Denis Suárez, Aleñá, Pablo Ibáñez…) plus Boyé as the target man.

In terms of absences, everything points to Facundo Garcés continuing to be out due to a long-term suspension and Sivera being unavailable due to injury, which consolidates Raúl Fernández’s position between the posts. Tactically, I see this Alavés side as very difficult to attack: they play very compactly, work well off the ball and are capable of causing damage on the break and from set pieces. Where they struggle most is when they have to take the initiative for long periods of time; if they take the lead, they feel comfortable, but if they concede first, they find it difficult to create clear chances from open play.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrive in Vitoria in a very strange situation: second in La Liga with 36 points (11W, 3D, 2L and a +17 goal difference), but with a sense of sporting crisis due to recent results and doubts about Xabi Alonso. The 2-0 league defeat to Celta and the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Champions League have left the team with only two wins in their last eight official matches, despite the fact that the game against City was quite respectable.

The big issue here is defence. Due to injuries and suspensions, Madrid face the match with virtually no full-backs and a makeshift back line: Militao, Carvajal, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mendy and Camavinga are injured or carrying knocks; in addition, Fran García, Álvaro Carreras and Endrick have been suspended in La Liga after the controversial match against Celta. Several media outlets agree that only Raúl Asencio and Rüdiger are available as natural defenders for Mendizorroza, forcing Alonso to improvise full-backs with midfielders such as Valverde or call on Castilla.

Up front, the potential remains enormous: Mbappé, Vinícius, Rodrygo and Güler account for most of the team’s goals and chances, although Mbappé is carrying a muscle injury and is not 100% fit. Madrid have won five of their last six away league games this season and, more importantly, their head-to-head record against Alavés is overwhelming: 22 wins in 26 games, with an average of 3.42 goals per game, and a clean sweep of victories in the last five league encounters (0-1, 3-2, 5-0, 0-1, 3-0).

My reading is clear: Madrid have more than enough to win, but their fragility at the back and their current state of mind suggest a more tactical and hard-fought game than a brilliant one. I don’t expect a whitewash, but rather a duel of patience where individual talent will decide the outcome.

My predictions for Alavés – Real Madrid

I’m going to make two bets: a more conservative one, taking advantage of Real Madrid’s favouritism but covering myself in case of any surprises, and a more aggressive one, trying to get high odds without going crazy.

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid wins or draws (X2) + under 4.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.55

The 1X2 market gives Madrid odds of around 1.55–1.65, while Alavés is above 6.00. Instead of going for a simple win, I prefer to play it safe with the double chance (X2) and combine it with under 4.5 goals, which usually keeps the odds in the 1.40–1.55 range. Why do I like it?

• Madrid have won their last five league visits to Alavés and clearly dominate the H2H.
• Alavés concede few goals at home and their matches tend to end with fewer than three goals, even against big teams.
• Madrid’s own context (defensive line, Xabi under scrutiny) calls for a more pragmatic approach, without crazy games or constant back-and-forth action.

I think it’s very unlikely that Madrid will lose if the match doesn’t get out of hand, but I don’t expect a rout either, so this pick seems like a logical way to back Madrid while reducing risk.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid to win and under 3.5 goals in the match (Result: Real Madrid & Under 3.5). Odds 3.10

Here I am looking for a very specific scenario which, honestly, is the one I imagine most: a hard-fought victory for Madrid, something like 0-1, 1-2 or 0-2. Several key points:

• The recent history at Mendizorroza fits this script: low scores such as 0-1 and 0-2 are quite common when Madrid visits Vitoria.
• The bookmakers tend to combine a Real Madrid win + under 3.5 at odds of over 2.50, while a simple win is around 1.60.
• Alavés is not an offensive team, and Madrid, with its defence on tenterhooks, is not in a position to open up games recklessly. Normally, if they take the lead, they will slow down and manage their advantage.

It’s a more demanding pick, of course: if Alavés lets loose or Madrid is forced to come from behind, the game could break open. But looking at how each team is doing, I think it’s very likely to be a low-scoring match decided by the outstanding talent of Mbappé, Vinícius or Rodrygo. For high odds and with some statistical basis, this is the ‘brave’ bet I would take for this Alavés – Real Madrid match.