Alcaraz vs Djokovic (Australian Open): odds and picks 01.02.2026

The dream final is here: Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet for the first time in an Australian Open final, with history at stake for both sides. The Spaniard is chasing a career Grand Slam and looking to confirm his dominance on hard courts, while the Serb returns to his most iconic territory in search of another major. In terms of style, mentality and precedent, this is a duel that will be decided by small details… and is likely to be a very close contest.

Date, time and where to watch Alcaraz – Djokovic

• Tournament: Australian Open 2026 (Grand Slam)
• Venue: Melbourne Park (Rod Laver Arena), Melbourne (Australia)
• Surface: Hard court (GreenSet)

Alcaraz vs Djokovic: odds on the match winner

Alcaraz’s current form

Alcaraz reaches the final after a gruelling semi-final, with moments of physical ups and downs and an exercise in pure competitive survival. Even so, his average level in Melbourne has been high: when he is fresh, his first serve commands and his return allows him to generate many second chances. The big question is how he will feel on Sunday: after such a long match, his body may take its toll just when he has to play the most demanding match of the tournament.

Key factors

In a final against Djokovic, the mental aspect weighs almost more than the technical. Alcaraz is boosted by having survived an extreme scenario, but he may also be suffering from physical fatigue. On hard court, his aggressive forehand and his ability to accelerate in parallel are decisive weapons, although he will have to choose very carefully when to go for the point: Novak punishes any hastiness with defence and changes of pace. Keep an eye on the pressure of “completing the Grand Slam” too: it could be fuel or a burden, depending on how he starts. If Alcaraz dominates with his first serves, attacks Djokovic’s second serves and doesn’t get frustrated in long rallies, his game plan is very solid.

Djokovic’s current form

Djokovic returns to a final in Melbourne after another five-set battle, proving that, when the stage demands it, his competitiveness remains elite. His pattern is recognisable: raising his level in the heated moments, protecting himself with his serve and turning each set into a psychological battle. Age is not negotiable, but his tactical reading and ability to sustain long rallies remain differentiators. If the match enters the realm of patience, that is where he feels most comfortable.

Key factors

The Serbian has built his legend at Rod Laver Arena and handles the final like few others: he knows when to lower the risk, when to put pressure on the rest and how to turn each game into a test of nerves. The key will be his physical condition after two long weeks and, above all, his effectiveness on the rest: if he does not make Alcaraz uncomfortable on his first serve, he may be forced to always play catch-up. In return, Djokovic is a specialist in ‘messing up’ his opponent’s game plan: varying heights, attacking the backhand when necessary, using drop shots to break the rhythm and turning the final into a chess game of decisions. If the match goes on and on and goes to tie-breaks, his experience in this scenario counts for a lot.

Head-to-head statistics: Alcaraz vs Djokovic

Although this is their first Australian Open final against each other, the rivalry is already a big one and the history is very evenly matched. This table summarises the most relevant information for making a prediction (if they have not recently coincided in a specific metric, the comparison focuses on their performance on hard courts and their history against each other):

Conclusion: Djokovic has been more effective on hard courts in their head-to-head matches, but Alcaraz has superior dominance when he imposes his rhythm with his serve and forehand. If it is even, the tie-break and emotional management can make the difference, because both turn the decisive moments into a duel of mental precision.

Our prediction(s) for Alcaraz – Djokovic

BeniThe conservative one

Alcaraz wins the match. Odds 1.30

If Alcaraz is even minimally fit, his ability to command with his first shot and hurt his opponent with his return gives him a real advantage on this court. In addition, he comes in with the momentum of having overcome a close semi-final and with the feeling that, when he takes the initiative, he can overwhelm even a defender like Djokovic. It’s not a “nice” odds, but it is consistent for a bankroll management bet.

BetoThe bold one

Alcaraz wins 3-2. Odds 3.00

If you are looking for a value pick without going against the main winner, Alcaraz’s 3-2 fits the most likely scenario: a long match, very close sets and one or two tie-breaks. Djokovic usually pushes his opponent into uncomfortable areas and, although Alcaraz has more power, it is not realistic to expect a walk in the park. If the Murcian ends up winning, he will probably have to sweat it out… and that’s where 3-2 pays out much more than the simple winner.