Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbert (ATP Masters 1000 París): odds and picks 28.10.2025
The draw for the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters gives us a thrilling first-round match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ugo Humbert, just three days after their encounter in Basel.
Davidovich arrives in good spirits despite losing in the Swiss final, and even having “touched” Humbert, who withdrew in the semi-finals.
On indoor hard court and with a French crowd, the context favours the Frenchman, but the Malaga native has raised his level in the final stretch of the year. It will be a match decided by details.
Date, time and where to watch Davidovich – Humbert
- Tournament: Rolex Paris Masters (ATP Masters 1000)
- Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2025
- Venue: Accor Arena (Paris, France) – indoor court.
- Surface: Indoor hard court.
Alejandro Davidovich vs Ugo Humbert: odds on the winner of the match
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s current form
Davidovich arrives fresh from Basel, where he strung together a series of high-level victories and only lost in the final to João Fonseca.
Earlier, he beat Humbert in the semi-finals after the Frenchman retired when he was trailing 7-6(4), 3-1. Beyond the result, his week confirmed a leap in consistency indoors, with aggression on the return and clearer decisions in tie-breaks.
Emotionally, his peak form and the momentum of recent results make him competitive in Paris.
Key factors
Mentally, the Malaga native arrives with a “cushion” of confidence: ATP 500 final on Sunday and partial victory over Humbert indoors a few days ago.
Physically, he has accumulated a workload, but there are no reports of discomfort. Tactically, his improvement in returning first serves and his use of the slice to vary heights disrupt left-handers like Humbert. He has few points to defend here and can play “loosely”.
Keep an eye on the context: the immediate memory of Basel could be a plus… or a trap if he goes in too fast. Recent head-to-head results are favourable, but the Frenchman’s performance in Paris is on the rise.
Ugo Humbert’s current form
Humbert arrives with some uncertainty after his withdrawal in Basel due to discomfort in his left hip when he was losing to Davidovich. Until then, his 2025 indoor season had been remarkable, with very solid runs indoors and an important title at the beginning of the year in Marseille.
At home (in a French atmosphere) he usually competes with extra energy and his left-handed serve and cross-court drive are formidable. If he feels physically fit, his ceiling in Paris is high.
Key factors
The mental aspect will depend on how he processes Saturday’s withdrawal: he can turn the page quickly or enter with doubts in his footing.
In terms of play, his open serve pattern on deuce and first forehand to the corner is lethal indoors; when he connects first serves, he dominates. The pressure of playing at home can be a boost… or a burden if the match goes on too long.
He is defending his run in Paris and, by nature, tends to thrive with his home crowd. The recent H2H is even, so managing key points (0-30, 30-30) will be decisive.
Head-to-head statistics: Alejandro Davidovich vs Ugo Humbert
Below is a quick comparison of the data. The match-up has just been repeated in Basel and now moves to Paris.
| Metrics | Davidovich | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Overall H2H* | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last match | Davidovich won (7-6(4), 3-1 ret.) – Basel SF, 25/10/2025 | — |
| Indoor hard (H2H trend) | Even (1-1 in completed matches) | Even |
| Approximate entry ranking Paris | ~15–18 | ~20–25 |
| Titles 2025 | 0 | Open 13 Provence (Marseille) |
The H2H count may vary slightly depending on the database (some do not count withdrawals in the same way). Recommendation: check ATP/UTS if you need the exact history.
Quick read: real equality. Davidovich arrives hotter off the bat from Basel and with confidence; Humbert, if healthy, usually imposes his first serve indoors and the support of the French crowd. The start (each player’s first service games) will set the tone for the match.
My predictions for Davidovich – Humbert
Conservative bet (1.30): Over 22.5 games in the match
A very even match in terms of style and recent history. Davidovich is returning better than in previous months, but Humbert’s first serve indoors sustains long sets.
With a very plausible tie-break and minimal breaks, the over on games offers a conservative profile. Look for this line on Bet365 Spain as soon as they open the pre-match market and avoid entering if it rises too high. (Odds subject to availability and movement in the hours leading up to the match).
Risky bet (odds 3.50): Davidovich wins in the tie-break of the 1st set.
The Spaniard arrives with good timing and confidence after his week in Basel; he tends to raise his level at key points when he adjusts his unforced errors.
Indoors, many first sets are decided by small details: if Alejandro takes the set to a tie-break, his aggression on the second serve could tip the sudden death in his favour. Specific Bet365 market with high odds when the local player is the pre-match favourite. Strategy for low stakes.
Other predictions
-
Prediction supported by:
BasketballAnadolu Efes vs Barcelona (Euroleague): odds and picks 20.11.2025Euroleague @ 20.11.2025More - Prediction supported by:BasketballBarcelona vs Baskonia (Euroleague): odds and picks 16.11.2025Euroliga @ 16.11.2025More
- Prediction supported by:FootballItaly vs Norway (2026 World Cup Qualifier): odds and picks 16.11.20252026 World Cup Qualifiers @ 16.11.2025More
