Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League): odds and bets 17.03.2026

I see this tie as heavily influenced by the context: the 1-1 draw in the first leg leaves everything up for grabs, but the Emirates Stadium tends to carry a lot of weight on nights like this. At home, Arsenal usually dictate the pace, win ground with high pressing and push you back into your own box through attacks down the flanks and second-ball situations. Leverkusen, on the other hand, come into this with the feel of a competitive side but one that struggles to close out games when the score is tight.

For me, the key lies in two factors: first, who controls set-pieces (this was decisive in the first leg), and second, how Leverkusen manage periods without the ball. If they can hold out for 60–70 minutes without conceding clear-cut chances, they can build momentum. But if Arsenal take an early lead, the game opens up and that’s where the English side tend to be more reliable in the final third.

Arsenal

Arsenal arrive in a form that gives me a great deal of confidence: even when they’re not at their best, they find a way to compete and get results. In knockout ties, that’s worth its weight in gold. At home, they usually step up a gear in terms of intensity, and in the Champions League this is particularly noticeable: they press better, win the ball back sooner and force the opposition to play more directly than they’d like. To me, they seem like a team that understands well when to accelerate and when to let the game develop.

That said, there are important nuances. If they’re short of creative players in the attacking midfield, Arsenal tend to rely more on wide play and set-pieces to create danger. That’s where crosses from the flanks, runs from the second line and territorial dominance come into their own. I pay close attention to how they push forward from the back: high full-backs, wingers driving forward and a ‘number 9’ who ties up centre-backs to open up channels. If the plan works, Leverkusen will spend a lot of time defending near their own area.

In terms of strengths, I’d highlight their ability to control the game without conceding clear counter-attacks and their persistence in creating chances. Their weakness, if the game becomes bogged down, could be a lack of creativity in the final third and a certain vulnerability if the opposition manage to break quickly after losing possession. In a tight second leg, Arsenal need to avoid getting flustered: patience, solid defending on set-pieces and not giving away counter-attacks.

Bayer Leverkusen

I see Leverkusen as a very well-drilled side: organised, intense and with a clear plan for competing against opponents with superior squads. They tend to feel comfortable defending in a midfield block and choosing when to press high up the pitch. Furthermore, they have something that always interests me in away second-leg matches: they don’t need to dominate to cause damage, because when they win the ball and run with it, they can punish their opponents.

That said, in recent weeks I’ve seen them play more ‘draw’ matches than wins, and that counts against them when they have to go to a big stadium to win or at least force extra time. Their best route, in my view, is to survive the first 20–25 minutes (when Arsenal push hardest), and look for opportunities from set-pieces and well-executed transitions. If they have to attack from set pieces for long periods, they usually struggle more, because Arsenal are strong at defending their area and closing down passing lanes inside.

Tactically, the key lies in how they protect the flanks: if Leverkusen’s full-backs drop too deep, Arsenal settle high up the pitch and you’ll be under constant pressure down the wings; if they push up too far, spaces open up for diagonal runs and crosses from deep. That’s why I believe their ideal game is one of emotional control: minimising mistakes, not losing aerial duels and making the most of every attacking opportunity. If they lose focus, Arsenal can punish them with a barrage of attacks.

Referee: Danny Makkelie

Makkelie is a referee who, generally speaking, tries to maintain control with discretion and doesn’t tend to take centre stage early on with cards. In big matches, he usually allows a certain amount of contact at the start, but when the game heats up, he typically intervenes with tactical yellow cards to curb protests or ill-timed challenges.

When it comes to betting on cards, I wouldn’t approach it as an automatic ‘over’ based solely on the referee’s name, but rather on the likely script: if Leverkusen have to defend deep for long periods, it’s typical for yellow cards to be shown for tactical fouls during transitions, particularly involving central midfielders and full-backs. If Arsenal take the lead, the tension also rises in duels and challenges near the opposition’s box. In short: it’s more interesting to target cards based on player profiles/roles than on a very high line without context.