Arsenal vs Brentford (Premier League): odds and picks 03.12.2025

Wednesday 3 December’s match at the Emirates has all the hallmarks of a solid leader hosting a competitive underdog. Arsenal are top of the table with 30 points (9-3-1, +18 goal difference) after their draw at Stamford Bridge, with the best defence in the Premier League (7 goals conceded) and a long unbeaten run in both the league and the Champions League.

Brentford sits between 8th and 10th place (6-1-6, 21-20), in good form overall and with Igor Thiago firmly in the fight for the Golden Boot (11 goals, behind only Haaland).

This is a typical ‘big team vs. awkward opponent’ clash: Arsenal are very strong at home and have well-established routines; Brentford are a brave and hard-working team, but their performance drops significantly away from home (5 defeats in their last 6 Premier League away games). With the odds heavily favouring the Gunners, the value seems to lie in combining Arsenal’s favouritism with goal markets and defensive solidity.

Arsenal

Arsenal are the main contenders for the title. In the Premier League, they have 9 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, 30 points, 24 goals scored and only 6-7 conceded, making them the most reliable defence in the league. They are on a 17-game unbeaten run in all competitions and a very solid run at home: 9 wins in their last 10 games at the Emirates, several of them with a clean sheet.

Arteta’s style is well established: high possession, aggressive pressing after losing the ball and constant territorial dominance. The Gunners generate around 1.9 xG per game and concede just 0.7 xGA, figures worthy of a championship-winning team. At home, opponents rarely manage more than 3-4 shots on target.

The goals are well distributed: Gyökeres, Saka, Eze and Trossard have around 3-4 goals each, and Saka leads the team in chances created and crosses. This offensive diversity allows them to compensate for important absences, as Gabriel Magalhães, Gabriel Jesus, Gyökeres, Havertz and Ødegaard are all doubtful.

Tactically, the classic 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 is expected: Raya in goal; Timber, Saliba (if he arrives), Calafiori or Hincapié and Zinchenko in defence; Rice–Zubimendi double pivot and an attacking line with Saka and Eze as regulars, plus Trossard or Nketiah as a reference point. Although injuries reduce their presence in the box, Arsenal will continue to dominate the opposition’s half with pace, crosses and attacking play.

Brentford

Brentford is performing above expectations. Their 6-1-6 record and 19 points place them in mid-table, with 21 goals scored and 20 conceded. The big contrast is between their strength at home (5-1-1) and their fragility away (1-0-5), with five defeats in their last six away games, including the one against Brighton after missing a penalty in the 93rd minute.

Igor Thiago is the star player: he has scored 11 goals in the league and is the main offensive threat. Around him, manager Andrews has built a team that creates danger in quick transitions, with wingers such as Wissa, Schade and Damsgaard providing speed and width.

In advanced statistics, Brentford averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, with 69% of games seeing both teams score and the same percentage of overs 2.5. They are a competitive team, but they suffer defensively when they open up.

Absentees include Dasilva, Fabio Carvalho and the young Milambo, which limits their attacking options. The likely starting line-up is a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 with Flekken or Kelleher in goal, a physical defence, a hard-working midfield (Nørgaard, Janelt, Baptiste) and Thiago up front. At the Emirates, their plan will be reactive: a mid-low block, inside support and counter-attacks looking for Thiago.

Referee: Tony Harrington

The referee will be Tony Harrington, a Premier League elite group referee since 2021. This season, he has officiated nine official matches, issuing 30 yellow cards and two red cards (3.3 cards per game). Last season, he issued 48 yellow cards and two red cards in 13 matches, indicating a medium-high disciplinary profile.

He is not an overly card-happy referee, but he acts firmly in intense matches. In high-pressure games, he usually issues between 4 and 6 yellow cards, which fits the context of this match, where high pressure and physical duels will be very present.

My predictions for Arsenal vs Brentford

BeniThe conservative one

Arsenal to win (1X2). Odds 1.30

An Arsenal win is the most logical option. The team is top of the table, the most solid defensively and almost unbeatable at home. Brentford, on the other hand, drop off dramatically away from home (1-0-5 in the Premier League). In terms of play, squad and context, everything points to a home win. It is ideal to use as a basis for accumulators or with a medium stake within the safe range.

BetoThe bold one

Correct score: Arsenal 2-0. Odds 6.00

A 2-0 result fits perfectly with the expected script. Arsenal dominates, controls, scores early and finishes the game in the second half. It is a classic score for the Gunners at home, especially against mid-table opponents who struggle away from home.

Their defensive solidity makes another clean sheet very likely, and Brentford, although competitive, tend to run out of steam in the final stages. It is a risky bet (exact score), but very consistent with the current dynamics of both teams.