Athletic Bilbao vs PSG (Champions League): odds and picks 10.12.2025

A big clash at San Mamés this Wednesday, 10 December on the last matchday of the Champions League group stage. Athletic are on a roll: two consecutive wins in LaLiga (0-2 at Levante and 1-0 at Atlético) have restored their confidence and keep them in 7th place with 23 points, in the European qualification zone. In the Champions League, however, their record is much more modest: 1-1-3 and only 4 points, which means they need to get something against one of the tournament’s big guns if they want to keep their play-in dreams alive.

PSG arrive as reigning champions and second in the 36-team Champions League, with 12 points from five games and the best attack in the tournament: 19 goals scored and only eight conceded. They are also flying high in Ligue 1, second, one point behind leaders Lens after their 5-0 win over Rennes at the weekend, with Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha making the difference. The big question is whether the atmosphere at San Mamés and the absences in the Parisian squad will balance out a match that, on paper, looks very favourable for Luis Enrique’s side.

Athletic

Athletic are in better shape than their Champions League table suggests. In LaLiga, they are 7th with 7 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats (15 goals scored and 20 conceded), but they have strung together two very important wins: 0-2 away to bottom club Levante and 1-0 at home to Atlético Madrid with a great goal from Berenguer in the 85th minute. This mini-break in results has taken the pressure off Valverde and, above all, reinforced the feeling that San Mamés is once again an uncomfortable place to play: Athletic have only lost there to top opponents this season.

In the Champions League, the road is much tougher: defeats at home to Arsenal (0-2), away to Dortmund (4-1) and Newcastle (2-0), a 3-1 win at San Mamés against Qarabağ and a 0-0 draw away to Slavia Prague. That leaves them with a record of 1-1-3, 4-9 in goals. In other words, when the physical and technical level of the opponent rises, Athletic struggles to sustain its best for 90 minutes. Even so, the team has competed better at home than away and already knows what it’s like to beat PSG at “La Catedral”: that 2-0 victory in 2011 in the Europa League is still very much alive in the atmosphere.

The good news is the form of some key players: Guruzeta is leading the attack (the team’s top scorer in the Champions League), Nico Williams is very sharp in one-on-one situations and Berenguer has found his form with his goal against Atlético. In the double pivot, Rego and Galarreta show good judgement with the ball, which is vital to relieve the pressure from Paris. The big problem is at the back: Laporte is out with a muscle injury and Paredes is also unavailable, so Valverde has to rely on Vivian plus a young centre-back (Jon de Luis) and full-backs who struggle when the opposition attacks down the wings. Against a PSG side that attacks with Kvaratskhelia, Barcola and company, this is a factor that weighs heavily on the betting odds.

PSG

PSG arrive in Bilbao in European steamroller mode. In this phase of the Champions League, they have 4 wins and 1 defeat, 19 goals scored and 8 conceded; they have the most productive attack in the tournament. Among those results are a 7-2 win at Leverkusen and a 5-3 win at Tottenham, with Vitinha absolutely on fire coming in from the second line. They are also coming off a 5-0 win over Rennes in Ligue 1, bouncing back from a 1-0 defeat in Monaco, with Kvaratskhelia scoring twice and Barcola once again proving to be very incisive.

In the French league, Luis Enrique’s team is second with 33 points in 15 games (10-3-2, 32-12 in goals), just one point behind Lens. Away from home, they have had a few slip-ups, but overall they are competing well and scoring with ease. The basic formation is a 4-3-3 with Safonov in goal, Marquinhos and Pacho/Zabarnyi in the centre, Joao Neves and Vitinha in midfield and an attacking trio with Mayulu as the ‘9’ accompanied by Kvaratskhelia and Barcola.

The injury news is important for this match: Dembélé is out with the flu, Chevalier is also out with an ankle injury, and Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are still out, while Lucas Hernández is suspended. In return, Désiré Doué is back, but in principle as a substitute. This forces Luis Enrique to reconfigure the full-backs and adjust the ball distribution, but the average level of the starting eleven remains very high. Personally, I feel that Dembélé’s absence weighs more heavily because of his unpredictability than because of his statistics, but PSG have learned to live without him this year and the system continues to produce a cascade of chances.

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Germany’s Daniel Siebert (41) will be in charge of the match at San Mamés. He is a referee with considerable UEFA experience and has been prominent in the Champions League this season: he has officiated four matches in the competition, issuing 25 yellow cards and three red cards, an average of just over six yellows and 0.75 reds per game. Overall, his averages are around 4.8 yellow cards per game throughout his career, so we are not exactly dealing with a ‘soft’ referee.

In terms of previous encounters, he has already refereed Athletic in a European semi-final against Manchester United, which ended in defeat for the Rojiblancos, and PSG on three occasions, all of which ended in victory for the French side. There have been no major scandals with either team, but he does have a clear profile: he lets the game flow, but when the match heats up, he is quick to reach for his cards. In a context like San Mamés, with Athletic usually playing very aggressively at home and PSG having players who are very difficult to stop when they get going, I expect a match that is perfectly suited to a total of 4-6 cards.

My predictions for Athletic – PSG

The bookmakers have PSG as clear favourites: the 1X2 is around 5.75 for an Athletic win, 4.00 for a draw and 1.60 for a Parisian victory. With that starting point and what I see in the data and my gut feeling, my picks are as follows:

BeniThe conservative one

X2 (PSG wins or draws) & over 1.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.55.

Why do I like it? First, because the odds model already tells us that the least likely scenario is a home win; protecting ourselves with a draw seems logical given the level of the Parisians in the Champions League (4-0-1 and 19 goals scored). Secondly, because PSG’s own style, which is very aggressive with the ball, pushes games towards scores with at least two goals, and Athletic at home usually has its moments of pressure, even if it is from set pieces. In addition, San Mamés puts pressure on, but this Athletic team suffers at the back without Laporte and Paredes, and against a team that attacks with such quality, it is difficult to imagine a long 0-0.

BetoThe bold one

PSG to win and over 2.5 goals in the match. Odds 2.70

Here I am assuming the most ‘natural’ scenario according to the numbers: PSG imposing their attacking talent in an open game. Luis Enrique’s side are coming off a 5-0 win over Rennes and a 5-3 win over Tottenham in the Champions League, with Vitinha, Kvaratskhelia and Barcola getting into the box very frequently. Athletic, for their part, generate a good atmosphere and intensity, but concede chances even in the matches they win; against Levante, for example, they allowed 11 shots and two clear chances despite the 0-2 win. With that mix, I can easily imagine a 1-2 or 1-3 result: Athletic pushing forward, San Mamés roaring and PSG finding spaces to punish them. The risk is that the Basque side will manage to keep the game very tight, but if the game opens up even slightly, the difference in firepower should be noticeable and the over 2.5 has a good chance of coming in with an away win.

In short, I’m going with a clear approach: trusting in PSG’s superiority, but adjusting the markets to cover the San Mamés factor in the conservative pick and looking for the ‘crazy’ match scenario in the risky prediction.