Athletic Club vs Real Madrid (La Liga): odds and picks 03.12.2025

A big match at San Mamés, LaLiga matchday 19, brought forward to Wednesday 3 December due to the Super Cup. Athletic arrive with 20 points (6-2-6), sitting in mid-table (8th-9th depending on the cut-off) and with the feeling that they have stabilised their course after a very uneven start.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, appear to be Barça’s closest pursuers: second, one point behind the leaders, but with three consecutive draws in the league that have set off alarm bells for Xabi Alonso.

For me, it’s a clash of contrasting momentum: Athletic are boosted after winning 2-0 at Levante, with a recognisable team and a San Mamés stadium that always raises the competitive level. Madrid, meanwhile, are coming off another setback (1-1 in Girona) and a month in which they have won only one of their last five official matches, but they still have tremendous offensive potential with Mbappé, Vinícius and Bellingham. The context suggests an intense match, with Madrid forced to make a statement on a pitch where they always struggle.

Athletic Club

Athletic go into the match in good spirits after their 0-2 win at the Ciutat de València, where they were clearly superior in both play and chances. They have a 6-2-6 record and 20 points in the league, with a slightly negative but competitive goal difference (approx. 14-17), reflecting a team that concedes but also creates.

At San Mamés, they are proving reliable: 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in LaLiga, with a record typical of a strong home team, relying on intensity and second plays. Their matches tend to be low-scoring, but with a high tempo and chances at both ends. Valverde maintains his 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 high-pressing system, with long full-backs and a lot of involvement from the second line.

Injuries are a problem: Yeray is out with a long-term suspension, and Iñaki Williams and Beñat Prados are also ruled out, reducing speed up front and depth in midfield. Added to that is the burden of minutes on key players such as Nico Williams, Sancet and Guruzeta.

In attack, the responsibility is shared between Nico and Guruzeta, plus the runs from Sancet or Berenguer. Athletic generate a lot of crosses and shooting opportunities at home, which could hurt a depleted Madrid defence. The question is whether, without Iñaki, they will have enough threat to punish the Whites’ mistakes and run at them in open play.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrive at a strange moment: very good numbers in the table (10-3-1, second, one point behind Barça) but with three consecutive draws that have raised doubts. In Girona, they once again lacked clarity in attack and suffered more than they should have.

The good news is that Militao and Rüdiger are back, which gives some breathing space to a defence that had been depleted for weeks. Even so, Carvajal, Alaba and Huijsen are still out, so the back line remains a makeshift one. Up front, however, the team is in good shape: Mbappé leads the Pichichi, Vinícius is back to his best and Bellingham continues to be decisive.

Xabi Alonso’s most likely starting eleven is a 4-3-1-2/4-3-3: Courtois or Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Rüdiger or Tchouaméni, and Carreras; midfield with Camavinga, Valverde and a more positional profile; and up front the Bellingham-Mbappé-Vinícius triangle.

Madrid’s problem is their management of games: when they take the lead, they switch off; when they fall behind, they rush things. In an emotional setting like San Mamés, this kind of fragility could cost them points… or open up a broken game that, through sheer force, ends up going their way.

My predictions for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Double chance Real Madrid or draw (X2) + over 1.5 total goals. Odds 1.55

I think this is the safest way to back Madrid without demanding a mandatory victory. The X2 usually pays out low, but combined with the over 1.5, it moves into the 1.50–1.55 range. Madrid urgently needs to react, while Athletic, with important players out, loses some of its offensive bite and depth. On the other hand, the recent numbers for both teams point to a match with at least two total goals. I don’t see Madrid losing and I find it hard to imagine a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreline, so this combination makes a lot of sense.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid wins and both teams score (Real Madrid & BTTS – Yes). Odds 3.30

Odds usually range between 2.75 and 3.00. It fits with the most likely scenario:

• Athletic presses hard at home and usually scores.
• Madrid have a lot of firepower and should score at least one or two goals.
• But they continue to show weaknesses at the back, especially with so many defensive injuries.

Scores of 1-2 or 1-3 are very consistent with the match scenario.
It’s a higher-risk pick because it combines the result and goals, but it’s the one with the most value if you’re expecting an open game.