Atlético Madrid vs Inter Milan (Champions League): odds and picks 26.11.2025

A top-level match at the Cívitas Metropolitano, corresponding to matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage. Atlético arrives with 6 points (2-0-2) after winning convincingly at home against Frankfurt (5-1) and Union SG (3-1), but also with tough away defeats against Liverpool (3-2) and Arsenal (4-0). Inter, meanwhile, have a perfect record: 4 wins in 4 games and a goal difference of 11-1, performing as one of the best teams in the entire competition.

I see it as a clash of very powerful forces. Atlético are on a roll in LaLiga, with 12 consecutive games without defeat, five consecutive wins and sitting in fourth place with 28 points. Inter are coming off a defeat in the derby against Milan, but they were fighting for the lead in Serie A and are showing top-level Champions League form. The atmosphere at the Metropolitano and the fatigue after the international break will have a big influence on the game.

Atlético Madrid

Atlético comes into this match in one of its best moments of the season. They are fourth in LaLiga with 28 points, just three behind Madrid and Barça, and are on a five-match winning streak. The latest was a hard-fought 1-0 win at Getafe, where an own goal by Raspadori made the difference. The streak speaks for itself: 12 league games without defeat and a team that shows competitiveness in every phase of the game.

In the Champions League, the road has been more uneven: a narrow defeat at Anfield (3-2), a display at home against Frankfurt (5-1), a blow at the Emirates (4-0) and a solid reaction at the Metropolitano with a 3-1 win over Union Saint-Gilloise. At home, however, Atleti are a rock: two wins in two European games, with eight goals scored and only two conceded.

On an individual level, Simeone has found a very balanced squad. Julián Álvarez and Conor Gallagher are providing attacking threat from midfield, while Koke, Nico González and Baena allow the team to alternate between long periods of possession and high pressing. The concern is on the injury front: Oblak is carrying a knee niggle, Marcos Llorente picked up an early injury at Getafe and others such as Giuliano Simeone, Giménez and Baena himself are carrying knocks.

Tactically, I expect a recognisable 4-4-2/3-5-2, with Atlético playing aggressively at home, looking to steal the ball high up the pitch and move quickly. Their weakness comes when the opposition challenges them for possession and forces them to run backwards, something that teams like Liverpool and Arsenal have already exploited.

Inter Milan

Inter are coming in like a European steamroller. In the Champions League, they have four wins in four games: 0-2 against Ajax, 3-0 against Slavia, 0-4 against Union SG and 2-1 against Kairat. Eleven goals scored and only one conceded. A well-oiled machine and among the three most reliable teams in the entire league phase.

In Serie A, the pace has also been very high, with recent wins against Verona, Fiorentina and Lazio. The defeat against Milan halted that run, leaving them fourth but very close to the top. Even so, the strength of Cristian Chivu’s side is undisputed: recognisable structure, attacking prowess and the ability to compete in any stadium.

Their classic 3-5-2 formation remains the basis: a three-man defence with Bastoni or Acerbi, deep full-backs such as Dimarco and possibly Dumfries, a technical midfield with Çalhanoğlu, Barella and Zielinski, and a powerful duo up front: Lautaro Martínez alongside Marcus Thuram. Doubts arise over the physical condition of Mkhitaryan, Çalhanoğlu and Dumfries, as well as occasional absences in defence.

Inter are very dangerous on the counter-attack: when they win the ball back after pressing, they accelerate like few other teams in Europe. Atlético must be careful here, because any loss of possession in their own half could be fatal. Their weakness comes when the wing-backs push too far forward and leave space behind them, something we have already seen in Serie A against teams that are good on the counter-attack.

My predictions for Atlético Madrid vs Inter Milan

BeniThe conservative one

Both teams to score – Yes. Odds 1.66

Although the odds are slightly above the most conservative range, it is the market that makes the most sense. Atlético have scored in three of their four Champions League games, conceding in all of them. Their home games have been very open, with 5-1 and 3-1 in this phase. Inter, for their part, have scored at least two goals in every European game and arrive with a forward line in excellent form. I find it hard to imagine a scenario where either side keeps a clean sheet: Atlético are exposed at home when they attack, and Inter have more than enough quality to punish mistakes. At the same time, the Italians are not impenetrable when pressed high up the pitch, and this Atleti side are in great form and have more than enough talent to cause damage.

BetoThe bold one

Exact score 1-1. Odds 6.50

For long odds, 1-1 seems to me to be the most likely score. Inter are solid and rarely lose control of a game; Atlético compete like few others at home and almost always stay alive until the final stretch. Both are tactically disciplined teams who know how to manage the heated moments. In addition, Inter are coming off a morale blow in the derby and could opt for a more pragmatic approach. Atlético, meanwhile, with injuries and physical fatigue, may not take too many risks if the match is evenly balanced. A draw fits the script of the match very well, and the odds of 6.50 make it a very attractive pick with a low stake.