Atlético Madrid vs Sevilla (La Liga): odds and picks 01.11.2025

Both teams arrive in very different circumstances: Atlético Madrid are trying to regain consistency after some ups and downs, while Sevilla FC are looking to consolidate their position and avoid falling into total inconsistency.

It is important to note that Atlético has won two of the last two head-to-head matches against Sevilla. Another factor is that Sevilla’s away form is poor, which could benefit Atlético, who defend well at home.

Therefore, I see a slight advantage for the home side, although Sevilla has the resources to cause an upset.

Atlético Madrid

Atlético comes into this match on the back of a crucial 2-0 away win against Betis, which has dispelled the ghosts of Arsenal’s thrashing.

At home in recent years, Atlético have dominated their encounters with Sevilla: in 59 meetings, the Rojiblancos have won 23 times, Sevilla 19 times and there have been 17 draws, with an average of 2.69 goals per game.

Last season against Sevilla, we saw a 1-2 and a 4-3 in their favour.

At home, Atlético scores an average of just over 2 goals per game (2.05) and in 78.6% of their home games they have scored more than 1.5 goals. They are a reliable home side: they are yet to lose at home this season (in all competitions).

Their strengths: great defence, quick transitions, and a deep understanding of their opponents.

Weaknesses: they sometimes slow down, especially in the final stages, and against teams that press well, they can concede more than usual.

Sevilla FC

Sevilla arrive with more doubts: in head-to-head matches against Atlético, they have accumulated 19 wins compared to their opponents’ 23 in those 59 games. In addition, in the last twelve months, Atlético have won both head-to-head matches and Sevilla have failed to win any.

Away from home, Sevilla have averaged 1.33 goals scored per game, and in 75% of their away games there have been more than 1.5 total goals.

They are coming off a midweek cup match against Toledo, where they won 1-4 with substitutes. Previously, they had suffered two consecutive defeats in La Liga (Real Sociedad 2-1 and Mallorca 1-3).

Their strengths: ability to react, experience and competitiveness in big games.

Their weaknesses: defensive inconsistencies away from home, fewer clear chances created and dependence on counterattacks.

My predictions for Atlético Madrid vs Sevilla

BeniThe conservative one

Atlético Madrid win (1). Odds: 1.35

Ideal for single bets, creating bets or combinations. Given Atlético’s superiority over Sevilla in their recent encounters, their home advantage and their more stable form, I believe they have enough of an advantage to win without it being a spectacular match.

BetoThe bold one

Atlético Madrid will win and both teams will score Odds 2.60

I expect Atlético to win, but I also see Sevilla scoring at least one goal, given the trend in matches between the two sides (an average of 2.69 goals per game in their head-to-head encounters) and their attacking capabilities, even if they are not at their best. So combining a home win + BTTS (both teams to score) seems to me to be a good balance between risk and opportunity.