Atlético Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise (Champions League): odds and picks 04.11.2025

Champions League match (group stage, Matchday 4) on Tuesday, 4 November 2025, at the Cívitas Metropolitano.

Atleti are the favourites and have the chance to secure their second victory in the European league; Union SG are struggling after two consecutive continental defeats. Key detail: this is the first official Champions League match between the two teams.

In competitive terms, two opposing dynamics are facing off: Atlético are in good form (2-0 vs Betis and 3-0 vs Sevilla, three consecutive clean sheets in the league), while Union SG combine positive domestic performances (1-4 in Waregem) with heavy defeats in Europe (0-4 vs Inter).

The Belgian side’s inconsistency and Atlético’s home form suggest a script of local dominance and a controlled score.

Atlético Madrid

They are in top form: a 3-0 win against Sevilla after a 2-0 win against Betis, consolidating confidence and automatisms.

I would highlight the impact of the substitutions (Almada, Griezmann, Gallagher) and the defensive solidity with Oblak. In addition, the team works hard on set pieces, an important resource against an opponent that struggles to defend second balls.

Keep an eye on Pablo Barrios, who is doubtful but could make a comeback; Simeone has tried alternatives with Molina – Le Normand – Lenglet – Galán and a more offensive midfield with Almada. In the Champions League, the context of the Metropolitano and an opponent with problems in transitions make me predict an aggressive Atleti after losing possession, looking for the weak side and loading the area with second-line attacks.

Key factors I value:

• Scoring first: when they take the lead, Atleti manage the game very well and minimise risks.
• Offensive set pieces, their greatest weapon.
• Avoiding opponent transitions after crosses or losses in the opponent’s half.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

A team of contrasts: solid in Belgium, where they are coming off a 4-1 win at Zulte-Waregem, but with serious setbacks in Europe, most recently a 4-0 loss to Inter. Kevin Mac Allister leads the defence, although the team struggles to defend their area when faced with elaborate attacks and changes of direction.

Offensively, Rodríguez and Giger are the most incisive, but their away game plan is reactive: mid-low block, steal and quick break. If they find themselves at a disadvantage, they have to open up the lines, which makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. They compete while the score remains low, but the physical and tactical leap to the Champions League still takes its toll.

My predictions for Atlético vs Union SG

BeniThe conservative one

Atlético to win & Under 4.5 goals. Odds 1.45.

The 1X2 market is very short in favour of Atleti (between 1.22 and 1.28), so combining it with a reasonable total gives you better value. Union SG away from home should not propose a long exchange if they are behind; Atleti, when in control, manages the game. Compatible scores: 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1.

BetoThe bold one

Atlético -1.5 handicap. Odds 2.80.

With the weight of the stadium, the positive momentum in the league (2-0 against Betis, 3-0 against Sevilla) and Union SG coming off a 0-4 loss in Europe, the possibility of a victory by two or more goals is real, especially if the 1-0 comes before the 60th minute. If you prefer to play it safe, Atlético -1.0 Asian handicap (void if they win by one goal) is around 1.80–1.95.