Austin Grand Prix (MotoGP): odds and picks 29.03.2026

Austin is always a unique test for the World Championship. COTA is unlike almost anything else on the calendar: it combines a very long straight with an uphill first corner, links together some very demanding changes of direction and finishes with a final sector of slow corners where traction is key. In a championship as tight as that of 2026, this track tends to ‘sort out’ the field: here we see who can brake late with control, who can turn the bike without destroying the rear tyre, and who has well-tuned electronics.

The context, moreover, suggests a weekend of fine-tuning. The tarmac in Austin tends to change as the sessions progress, and the wind can complicate braking and acceleration. With Bezzecchi arriving as the benchmark for the start and Márquez boasting a dominant record at COTA, the duel between raw pace and experience on this circuit promises to be the centre of attention.

Information: date, schedule and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Circuit of the Americas (COTA), Austin (Texas)
• Race date: Sunday 29 March
• Qualifying (MotoGP): Saturday 28 March

Odds on the winner of the Austin Grand Prix

Latest on the podium favourites

Based on recent form and suitability for the circuit, the podium is likely to be contested by Márquez, Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín, with Acosta very close if he can find consistency under heavy braking. COTA rewards precision and punishes mistakes: here, it’s not enough to be fast; you have to be consistent and ‘clean’ in the slow section at the end.

Marc Márquez: current situation and prospects

Austin is, historically, “Márquez territory”. Not just because of past victories: it is a circuit that suits his classic strengths, especially his ability to brake late without losing the line and his controlled aggression in changing direction. At COTA, where the first sector demands courage and the second requires fluidity, his style usually makes the difference from Saturday onwards.

The key in 2026 is how he feels going into the race. If the weekend starts with a good feeling from the front end, Márquez becomes a very serious contender for victory because overtaking is possible here, but starting at the front allows you to manage the rear tyre better in the final sector. Where he could struggle is if the bike moves under braking with a full tank or if he loses traction coming out of slow corners: COTA punishes wheel spin heavily, and a poor exit from T20 ruins your straight-line speed. Even so, based on experience and his ‘memory’ of the track, he is the most reliable bet for the podium.

Marco Bezzecchi: current situation and prospects

Bezzecchi arrives as the man to beat, thanks to his results and confidence. And in MotoGP, when a rider is at that stage, he tends to keep things simple over the weekend: he doesn’t look for miracles in the set-up, he looks to replicate what already works. At COTA, that’s worth its weight in gold, because the circuit forces compromises: you need top speed for the straight, but also agility to link the corners and stability to brake hard.

His real chance hinges on two things. The first is qualifying well: starting from the front or second row avoids the traffic jam at the first corner and reduces the risk of losing time in the slow sector. The second is managing tyre wear without sacrificing pace. Austin often ‘invites’ you to push too hard, and if you wear out the rear tyre too soon, the final stages become a desperate defence. If Bezzecchi keeps his cool in the opening laps and makes it through to the final ones, he has the pace to win. It’s not a long shot: he’s a very solid contender.

Jorge Martín: current situation and prospects

Martín is usually synonymous with pure speed, especially over a single lap, and at COTA that can be worth half the race. The start and the first lap here are a bottleneck: if you position yourself well from the outset, you can set the pace and prevent the race from turning into a tyre-shattering battle of overtaking. Furthermore, his ability to string together fast corners with precision could be an advantage on the circuit’s most flowing section.

The question mark is his stamina and management in the final sector. Austin’s slow corners are punishing if the bike doesn’t grip smoothly, and that’s where electronics and feel make the difference. If Martín finds a balance that allows him to go hard without sliding, his chances of a podium finish are high; if not, he may be forced to ride ‘defensively’ on the straights and leave himself open to overtakes under braking. In any case, given his speed and the form he has shown at the start of the season, he is one of the strongest contenders to finish in the top three, especially if he starts from the front of the grid on Sunday.

Track conditions and weather forecast

COTA (5.5 km and 20 corners) is a circuit of extremes: a very long straight (with a very hard braking point at the end), high-speed chicanes in the first sector and a slow final section where traction is key. It is a track that demands a lot of front-end stability to brake late and turn, but also a rear end that doesn’t lose composure when opening the throttle in the slow corners. The clearest overtaking opportunities are at Turn 1 and the braking point at the end of the back straight, but the real time is gained by being efficient in the final sector.

As for the weather, the weekend is set to see generally stable skies and high temperatures for the time of year: around 23–29°C on the key days, with it feeling hot if the sun beats down. With these temperatures, rear tyre management and compound choice become even more important, especially in the long race, where COTA tends to punish those who push too hard at the start.

Comparison of leading teams

Ducati remains the benchmark for the complete package: power on the straights, good braking and the ability to generate traction without demanding ‘miracles’ from the rider. At COTA, this translates into a double advantage: you can defend well at top speed and attack under braking, provided the balance isn’t lost in the slow sector.

Aprilia looks like a genuine contender if pace is the deciding factor. When they find stability, their cornering is very competitive and they can make a difference in sections where others are forced to ‘brake’ the bike too hard. Their challenge at Austin is usually not to lose too much ground on the straights and not to compromise their exit from slow corners.

KTM usually shines when aggression is required and when the front end inspires confidence. If the bike enters Turn 1 well and holds firm under braking, they can be up there. But COTA also punishes a lack of smoothness: if the rear tyre suffers, the second half of the race becomes an uphill struggle. Here, pace strategy is almost as important as speed.

Latest results from the Austin Grand Prix

COTA has had a very distinct narrative over the last decade: Márquez was the historic dominant force, with an almost intimidating run of form in his prime. More recently, the circuit has opened up: Álex Rins was able to break that dynamic, and in the last two years we have seen different winners, a sign that the current balance in MotoGP leaves less room for an absolute ‘king’.

In 2024, the race went to Maverick Viñales, on a weekend where pace and management were decisive. In 2025, victory went to Pecco Bagnaia, with Ducati demonstrating its ability to maintain pace without wearing out the tyres. This mix of recent winners confirms the key takeaway for 2026: COTA is no longer just a matter of history, but of who arrives with the best package and gets the balance right between power, braking and traction.

Summary of the key factors for this GP

• Qualifying and start: at COTA, getting to the front avoids traffic and scares at Turn 1.
• Hard braking: front-end stability and control of the ‘stoppie’ at T1.
• Traction in the final sector: if you slide, you lose time… and tyre.
• Rear compound and management: in the heat, tyre wear decides the final stretch.
• Top speed vs. cornering: a very delicate balance in the set-up.
• Risk of incidents: a long track, braking to the limit and races with overtaking.