Barcelona vs Athletic Club (La Liga): odds and picks 22.11.2025

Matchday 13 of LaLiga, Saturday 22 November at the Spotify Camp Nou, marking Barça’s official return to their stadium after more than two and a half years of works. They return home with a 9-1-2 league record and a +17 goal difference, three points behind Madrid. Athletic arrive in mid-table, competing in the Champions League and with minutes in their legs.

Key factors I value:

1. Emotional and sporting impact of the return to the Camp Nou, with limited capacity but a big-match atmosphere;
2. Barça’s offensive firepower (32 GF, second best xG in the championship) versus a somewhat more inconsistent Athletic, especially away from home;
3. Absences for both sides: Barça very depleted in midfield, Athletic waiting to recover key pieces like Nico Williams and Sancet, with Iñaki still KO.

Barcelona

I come to this match seeing a Barça that, despite its ups and downs, produces a great deal: 32 goals scored, 15 conceded and one of the best xG figures in LaLiga. At home, they have chained five official victories in a row, with scorelines like 3-1 against Elche and 6-1 against Olympiacos in the Champions League, confirming that Flick’s team suffers at the back at times, but whenever they settle in the opponent’s half, they generate a brutal volume of chances.

The context of the return to the Camp Nou seems key to me: new-old stadium, 45,000 people and an extra point of energy that usually translates into a very aggressive start, high pressing and many attacks down the wings with Lamine Yamal and Rashford attacking the intervals. Hansi Flick has consolidated a base with Szczęsny in goal and an Araujo–Cubarsí axis, with very deep full-backs.

The downside is the absences in midfield:

• De Jong, suspended.
• Gavi and Pedri, out due to injury.
• Ter Stegen KO and muscle problems for Raphinha; Casadó a slight doubt.

This forces them to rely on Bernal, Fermín, Dani Olmo and to accept a degree of lack of control in spells of the match. Even so, due to talent and context, I expect a commanding Barça, with plenty of shots and arrivals, and capable of pinning Athletic back for long phases of the encounter.

Athletic Club

Athletic arrive in a harsher context: fighting in LaLiga and the Champions League, with tough trips (Dortmund, Newcastle) and a recent league run of three defeats in four before the 1-0 against Oviedo (Real, Getafe, plus the draw with Elche). It is a recognisable Valverde team: high press when they can, good ball treatment, a lot of emphasis on the wings, but one that lowers its performance away from home (only 0.8 points per match, 1.4 goals conceded on average).

In attack, the numbers speak of a side that hovers around a goal per match in the league, with Guruzeta as top scorer (3 goals) and Nico Williams as best assist provider. The problem is that Nico is coming back from injury, Sancet is also recovering and Iñaki Williams remains out, which significantly cuts down the threat in space and depth.

Keys I note on the red-and-white side:

• Managing the exit from the Blaugrana press well: if they can bypass the first line, they have the quality to progress.
• Using Nico between the lines if he is fit to start, attacking the back of the full-back on his side.
• Not falling into a match that is too open: in the last big away trips (Dortmund 4-1, Newcastle 2-0, Real 3-2), when the duel breaks open, they suffer much more than they should.

I believe Athletic arrive competitive, but the calendar punishes them: full Camp Nou, Barça with extra motivation and them with 72 hours less real preparation due to the European load.

My predictions for Barcelona vs Athletic Club

With current odds, the market is very clear: Barcelona favourite in a range of 1.40–1.48 for the 1X2, draw hovering around 4.8–5.0 and Athletic rising to 6.4–7.0 depending on the bookmaker. From there, I work it like this:

BeniThe conservative one

Barcelona to win. Odds: 1.44

Here I don’t complicate things: between the return to the Camp Nou, the offensive form (32 goals, +17 difference), the 9-1-2 balance and the very favourable recent H2H (0-3 at San Mamés in May, 0-2 in the Super Cup in January), the home win seems the logical base.

Furthermore:

• Athletic away have only one league win, with quite a few problems sustaining 90 minutes at the maximum.
• Barça return home, with all the emotional and commercial context pushing for a serious match, without relaxation.

For a prudent profile, even a “Barcelona to win and over 1.5 match goals” (1.55–1.60) also fits very well, because it is hard to imagine a dry 1-0 seeing the production of both.

BetoThe bold one

Barcelona to win to nil (Barcelona to win + “Both Teams to Score: NO”) Odds: 2.70

Here I adjust more to the script I have in my head: Barça commanding and Athletic struggling to do real damage. Prediction models place this market around 2.60, with quite a lot of logic:

• Athletic, away, average less than 1 goal per match and have been kept scoreless in several demanding visits.
• Barça, with Araujo–Cubarsí and Szczęsny, have increased their percentage of clean sheets and when they strike first they tend to control rather than expose themselves.
• Scorelines like 2-0/3-0 fit with the majority of statistical scenarios.

If you want something even more aggressive, the -1.5 Barcelona handicap moves in 2.10–2.40; combining it with an Under 4.5 you can take it towards 2.80–3.00.