Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga): odds and picks 02.12.2025

A big match at Spotify Camp Nou, worth practically six points in the fight for LaLiga. Barcelona are top of the table, ahead of Real Madrid, Villarreal and Atlético, who have thrown themselves into the fight after a brutal run of results. The match will be played on Tuesday 2 December, with only three points separating the two sides and the possibility of Barça opening up a small gap… or Atleti turning the table upside down.

I see it as a clash of very powerful forces: Barça are coming off four straight league wins, the last one 3-1 against Alavés, with Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal in fine form; Atleti have strung together five league wins, including a 1-0 win at Getafe and a 5-2 win over Madrid that changed their season. In addition, Flick has Pedri and De Jong back just as Simeone fields a very recognisable and competitive team. It’s a perfect scenario for an open game, with goals and a lot of tactical detail.

Barcelona

Barça come into the match in high spirits. They are top of LaLiga and are coming off a 3-1 win over Alavés, where they came from behind again, with a brace from Dani Olmo and another goal from Lamine Yamal. That victory, combined with Madrid’s slip-up in Girona, has left them at the top with a recent run of four consecutive league wins and a very clear attacking dynamic: they have scored in 34 consecutive league games, equalling the record set in the Guardiola era.

At home, Flick’s team is a steamroller in terms of production: in recent games at the Camp Nou, they have frequently scored more than two goals, with Lewandowski, Ferran, Lamine and now Olmo sharing the goals. The 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 formation is now well established: deep full-backs, very aggressive wingers in one-on-one situations and a midfield that combines passing and attacking.

The big news for this Barça–Atleti match is the return of the ‘brain’: Pedri is expected to start after making his comeback against Alavés, and Frenkie de Jong is also back in the fold after being absent for personal reasons. This allows Flick to pair them with Gundogan or Olmo and greatly improve the level of internal circulation. The important absences remain Gavi and Ter Stegen, with the German still out and Joan García and Szczęsny sharing minutes between the posts.

What does concern me somewhat about Barça is a certain defensive instability in big games: against Chelsea and Madrid, there have been phases where they have struggled when players run behind them or when the team breaks apart. Even so, in the league they are managing to hold their own in those moments and, with the Camp Nou pushing them on, they tend to find periods of enormous dominance where they can do a lot of damage to an Atlético side that, if they sit too deep, will end up conceding chances.

Atlético Madrid

Atleti arrive in Barcelona looking very much like league title contenders. In LaLiga, they have a record of 9-4-1 and 31 points, third/fourth in the table but only three points behind Barça, with a spectacular home record and a very solid overall balance. The important thing for me is the momentum: they are coming off five straight league wins, including a 1-0 win at Getafe and a convincing 3-0 win over Sevilla, and that 5-2 win over Real Madrid that completely changed their season.

Offensively, Simeone’s team is very well tuned. Julián Álvarez is currently the big star: seven goals in the league and ten in total, supported by Griezmann and Sørloth, who also have four league goals each. Added to this is the second line: Almada, Baena, Nico González and Barrios contribute goals and final passes, and the team has the ability to combine inside or kill you on the counterattack.

In terms of formation, I expect the usual hybrid 3-5-2/4-4-2: three centre-backs when they need to defend, wing-backs, a competitive double pivot and total freedom for Griezmann and Julián between the lines. The question mark is in goal: Oblak is carrying an injury and has missed recent games, with Musso responding at a high level.

Atleti’s problem is in the infirmary: Llorente is out with a muscle injury and Le Normand will also be out until January. There are also injuries to other defenders. Even so, the team maintains very strong automatisms. In big games, they tend to sit deeper, waiting for the opposition to make a mistake; against a Barça side that plays so vertically, every loss of possession can turn into a dangerous transition, but at the same time, every Rojiblanca recovery is a lethal weapon.

My predictions for Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Both teams to score – Yes. Odds 1.50

This seems to me to be the most logical option within the safe range. Barça has scored in every league match and has found the net in more than 30 consecutive games; Atleti comes into the match with a very high scoring average in its recent run, with Julián and Griezmann in decisive form. Defensively, neither team is impenetrable: Barça concedes chances when the game breaks down and Atleti suffers away from home when they are under pressure for long periods. For accumulators or medium stakes, this pick is perfect.

BetoThe bold one

Exact result 2-2. Odds 12.00

For high odds, I’m going with a scenario that I think is quite plausible: a 2-2 draw. Both teams are coming in with a lot of punch, powerful attacking dynamics and a need to score points. I imagine Barça dominating for long periods and Atleti being very dangerous every time they break the pressure. It’s a score that reflects a controlled back-and-forth match, where neither team completely dominates. The odds are high — as always with correct scores — but it makes sense and is a good value bet for a low stake.