Barcelona vs Real Madrid (Spanish Super Cup): odds and bets 11.01.2026

Super Cup final on neutral ground (Jeddah, King Abdullah Sports City) and with a fairly clear context: Barça arrives after a tremendous 5-0 win over Athletic, and Madrid after a more difficult semi-final against Atleti (2-1).

For me, the key lies in two things: the ‘health’ of the defences (Barcelona without Ter Stegen, Araújo, Gavi and Christensen; Madrid with important absences at the back such as Rüdiger and Militão) and the tactical approach each team adopts. If the match breaks down in transitions, it usually turns into a back-and-forth Clásico; if it gets bogged down, the small details (a set piece, a mistake on the break, a red card) decide the outcome.

Barcelona

I come to this final with the feeling that Barça are more “complete” in terms of their play. The 5-0 win over Athletic in the semi-finals is not just the score: it is the kind of match that puts you mentally in final mode, with rhythm, confidence and a lot of punch.

In their recent run, the statistics show that they have not lost in their last nine games, and looking at the immediate results, they have strung together victories such as the 2-0 win over Espanyol and the 2-0 win over Mallorca. That continuity is noticeable: a more stable team in pressing after losing possession, more aggressive in the opponent’s half and, above all, with clear automatisms when attacking from the wings and activating the striker coming from the second line.

The “but” is in goal and the defensive axis: Ter Stegen out changes the security at the start a lot, and if pieces such as Araújo and Christensen are also missing, Madrid will smell blood when they can run or when they force you to defend crosses from the wings. Even so, Barça compensates with offensive volume and a pace of play that, when they take the lead, they usually maintain very well because they dominate with the ball and make you chase them. In LaLiga, they are also the leaders (49 points in 19 games), which is no small feat in terms of consistency.

Real Madrid

Madrid reaches the final with a hard-earned ticket: 2-1 against Atlético, with an electric start (very early goal) and a long stretch in which they had to suffer and defend. That nuance matters to me because against Barça, if you give away phases of control, you usually pay for it with chances against you.

Recently, they have been on a five-game unbeaten run, coming off a 5-1 win over Betis that shows that when Madrid find space between the lines, they can destroy you in a matter of minutes. The problem is that this brilliant version coexists with a more vulnerable one: if the opponent forces them to defend for long periods near the area, the team breaks down, concedes shots and becomes more dependent on their goalkeeper.

And this is where the most decisive factor for betting comes in: defensive absences. Rüdiger and Militão are notable absences, and in a final against a confident Barça, that requires adjustments: either you protect a lot on the inside (lower block and constant help) or you take a chance on an exchange game where Madrid also has firepower. They are second in LaLiga (45 points in 19 games), so the competitive level is there; the question is whether they can sustain it for 90′ (or 120′) without the defence ‘creaking’.

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

The referee appointed for the final is José Luis Munuera Montero.

In terms of trends, he seems like a good fit for a heated Clásico: his numbers this season in LaLiga show a lot of yellow cards per game (for example, 28 yellow cards in 7 games in that breakdown), which gives you an average of close to 4 per game. In a tense final with constant protests and duels, he is the type of referee who can trigger a flurry of cards if the match heats up early on.

My predictions for Barcelona vs Real Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Over 1.5 goals (match total). Odds 1.12

My reading is that, with Barça without Ter Stegen/Araújo/Christensen and Madrid struggling at the back, there are too many ingredients for both teams to concede chances. In addition, you’re coming off a 5-0 win for Barça and a 2-1 win for Madrid: both teams are scoring goals, and that usually pushes the script towards a match with at least two goals, even if it gets stuck at the start (a set piece breaks it open).

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid to win (1X2). Odds 3.50

This is the “value for money” pick: if Barça struggles to get going without Ter Stegen and Madrid manages to take the lead two or three times (or punish a mistake), then the Whites’ plan makes sense. It’s not the most likely scenario, but it is a fairly realistic one in a one-off final, which is why it’s worth going for high odds.