Baskonia vs Olimpia Milano (Euroleague): odds and picks 05.12.2025

A heated match at the Buesa Arena: Friday, 5 December. I expect a clash of styles: the fast pace that Baskonia usually sets at home against a more controlled and efficient Olimpia at the back. The home court advantage and Vitoria’s outside shooting could tip the balance in what is likely to be a very even contest.

In recent weeks, Baskonia has alternated between offensive peaks and defensive lapses, while Milano arrives with a more solid mid-court game and better finishes. Keep an eye on the schedule: both teams arrive with European and domestic commitments, but the Italian team has travelled and that usually weighs heavily in the early quarters. Rebounds and turnovers will tip the balance.

Baskonia latest

Baskonia is clinging to the Buesa to catch its breath in a very even Euroleague. Its best stretches come when it increases possessions and runs after long rebounds, but it struggles in half-court defence. With a standard break between games and a sufficiently deep rotation, the focus is on protecting its own basket and avoiding exchanges of runs.

Latest news on Olimpia Milano

Milano arrives with a sense of professionalism: a slow pace, looking for mismatches and consistent defence in the low block. Its Achilles heel away from home is the volume of three-pointers from its opponents when the game speeds up. If it controls the tempo and loads up on rebounds, it has a good chance of winning in a close game.

Summary of the key factors in this game

• Venue: Friday 5 December at the Buesa Arena; atmosphere always favourable to the home team.
• Pace: Baskonia performs better with high possessions; Milano prefers half court and long attacks.
• Defensive rebounding: Key to cutting off Vitoria’s transitions.
• Baskonia’s three-pointers: If they exceed 37% at home, their ceiling rises significantly.
• Close finishes: Milano is more reliable in tight finishes.
• Travel fatigue: The first quarter will be crucial for the visitors.
• Turnovers: The team with fewer than 12 will have a tactical advantage.
• Early inside fouls: Could tip the +/− and total points.

Baskonia vs Olimpia Milano: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Olimpia Milano +5.5 Asian handicap. Odds 1.46.

In what I expect to be an even match with small margins, this point cushion protects against a close finish and covers even if Milano concedes by one or two possessions. I like it because it fits with the script of controlled pace and less variance in the middle of the court.

BetoThe bold one

Olimpia Milano wins by 6-10 points (margin of victory). Odds 3.60.

If Milano imposes its tempo, punishes turnovers and stifles the home side’s outside shooting, the game could be decided in the final stretch without turning into a blowout. It’s a less likely scenario, but consistent with their better management of close games and the tactical matchup in five-on-five play.