Bayern vs Real Madrid (Euroleague): odds and picks 28.10.2025

A big Euroleague game at SAP Garden with a tense atmosphere. My take: Madrid is a step above in terms of skill and depth, and that usually counts for a lot on long 5×5 nights. Bayern competes when the pace slows down, punishes from the mid-post and wins second chances; if the scoring picks up or the white triple appears, the script will be written for the visitors. At this point in the season, I see Madrid as better prepared to manage runs and closings.

Information: date, time and where to watch the game

• Competition: Euroleague
• Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2025

Odds for the winner of the Bayern vs Real Madrid match

 (Reference odds; may vary until the time of the match)

Bayern’s latest

A team with good ball movement and craft, better the longer they hold possession. I like their 4-5 to load up the glass and open up 45º at times. Where they suffer most: when they are run down after a turnover and the corner is opened up; that’s where the defence is late and the opponent strings together runs. Home key: turnovers ≤12 and bonus managed.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Shabazz Napier / Sylvain Francisco
• Shooting guard: Andreas Obst
• Small forward: Vladimir Lucic
• Power forward: Serge Ibaka / Devin Booker
• Centre: Othello Hunter / Brankovic

Script: Napier for the 2×2 and free throws, Obst as the outside metronome, Lucic as the glue, and the 4-5 to punish on rebounds and the mid-post.

Real Madrid’s latest

Madrid travels with its classic playbook: Campazzo to set the pace, Musa/Hezonja opening up the game from 1v1 and the Tavares-Poirier duo dominating both boards. In Europe, they hardly need streaks to break away: two consecutive defences and a three-pointer in rhythm are enough to open up a +6 lead. My feeling: if they control their glass and don’t get bogged down inside, the game will fall into their mould.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Facundo Campazzo
• Shooting guard: Dzanan Musa
• Small forward: Gabriel Deck
• Power forward: Mario Hezonja / Trey Lyles
• Centre: Walter Tavares / Vincent Poirier

Plan: p&r centre to attract help, ball to Deck/Hezonja at the mid-post and punishment in the corner. With Tavares clear of fouls, the rebounding advantage is real.

Recent match-ups and pattern

In recent matchups, Madrid has imposed its will when it won the rebound and reduced unforced errors; Bayern fought back when it collapsed the paint, took the game to the free throw line and found success from the front. In Munich, the first surge after the break usually sets the tone.

Summary of key factors

• Pace: medium-low favours Bayern; if it picks up, Madrid breathes easier.
• Rebounds: Tavares/Poirier vs Ibaka/5 local, the battle of the match.
• Home turnovers (≤12): red line to avoid giving away transition.
• White triple (Musa/Hezonja): +/-10 thermometer.
• Fouls by the 5: they determine the whole geometry and the bonus.

Bayern vs Real Madrid: our prediction