Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (Champions League): odds and picks 25.11.2025

A match with a lot of context: matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage, with Dortmund sitting in the upper-middle of the table (7 points, 2-1-1 record) and Villarreal practically forced to win with only 1 point after four matchdays (0-1-3).

The setting does not help the Submarine either: Signal Iduna Park, where BVB has turned the Champions League into a historic stronghold, with 56 wins in 96 home games in the competition.

I come to this clash with a feeling of contrasting momentum: Dortmund are coming off a crazy 3-3 draw against Stuttgart in the Bundesliga that left defensive doubts but confirmed their attacking prowess (third with 22 points). Villarreal arrive in Germany with the best start to a league season in their history (29 points from 39, third in LaLiga) but with a very poor Champions League campaign, including defeat in Paphos. The atmosphere, the needs of both sides and accumulated fatigue will weigh heavily on how the match unfolds.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund arrives with mixed feelings. They are competing well in the Bundesliga (third with 22 points, although already far from the top) and are coming off a 3-3 draw with Stuttgart after leading 2-0 and scoring the 3-2 in the 89th minute before conceding in stoppage time. That match sums up Kovač’s team well: a great ability to create chances, but too many concessions at the back when the game becomes chaotic.

At home, however, BVB has been reliable: four wins and two draws in their last six official matches at Signal Iduna Park, with no defeats in more than eight months at home in official competition. In the Champions League, they have already beaten Athletic (4-1) and won in Copenhagen (2-4), losing only to a much superior City (4-1).

Tactically, I expect a very aggressive 4-2-3-1/4-3-3, with deep full-backs and a lot of presence in the middle from the attacking midfielders. Previews point to a fairly standard starting eleven, with Kobel in goal and players such as Emre Can, Sabitzer and Nmecha providing balance in midfield. In attack, Adeyemi is in good form after scoring against Stuttgart, and the team has options on the wings and in the centre to punish a Villarreal defence that struggles in its own area.

Dortmund’s big problem remains their management of leads: they are a team that, when they take the lead, tend to break down and concede too many transitions. The possible accumulation of injuries in defence (Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini and Brandt have been carrying recent physical problems) may force them to rotate or push players, something to watch out for especially when it comes to betting on goals and shots on target.

Villarreal

Villarreal arrives with a stark contrast between La Liga and the Champions League. In La Liga, they have had their best start ever: 9 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats (29 points), third behind Madrid and Barça. They are coming off a 2-1 win over Mallorca at La Cerámica, coming back in the second half with a decisive goal from Oluwaseyi in the 83rd minute after a physically demanding match.

In the Champions League, however, the Yellow Submarine has foundered: a 2-2 draw at home to Juventus and defeats against Tottenham, Manchester City and Paphos, with only one point and many doubts in their own area. Away from home in this Champions League, they have yet to score and have looked a little more timid with the ball.

Under Marcelino, the basic formation is a very recognisable 4-4-2: tight lines, long full-backs and a lot of importance placed on the strikers’ runs. The previews point to a fairly consistent line-up, with Luiz Júnior in goal and a defence in which Foyth and Mouriño could suffer if Dortmund find advantages on the wings. Up front, Gerard Moreno continues to be the main reference point, accompanied by mobile players such as Mikautadze or a second striker who drops wide a lot.

One thing I always bear in mind is that Villarreal compete quite well in Germany. They have only lost twice in seven European visits to this country, with six wins, five draws and three defeats in all matches against German clubs. That historical solidity, combined with their good form in the league, means that I would not rule out them putting up a fight despite their poor performance in the Champions League. The big question mark is their defensive fragility and the number of clear chances they have conceded in this Champions League, something that usually comes at a high price against BVB.

Referee: Davide Massa

The referee appointed is Italian Davide Massa, an established European referee who has been officiating in Serie A, UEFA competitions and World Cup qualifiers. So far this season, he has averaged around 4-5 yellow cards per game in Serie A (4.75 on average in 2025/26) and around 2.5 yellow cards per game in the Champions League, figures that speak of a relatively balanced approach: he is not an ‘extreme card-giver’, but he does not let contact get out of hand either.

Massa has already refereed Villarreal in Europe: a 1-1 draw in the Europa League in 2016, a match with quite a few physical challenges and where he did not hesitate to issue cautions. There is no recent history of him refereeing Dortmund in the Champions League, so we do not see any clear patterns with the Germans.

In an open game, with two teams pressing hard and very attacking full-backs, I expect a total of 4-6 yellow cards, but it is not a game particularly conducive to red cards unless the score gets out of hand.

My predictions for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

BeniThe conservative one

Both teams to score – Yes. Odds 1.66

Dortmund have conceded in all four Champions League games and also suffered greatly against Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, where they created chances at will. Villarreal, for their part, have been scoring a lot in the league and tend to produce a lot in transitions, with Gerard, Mikautadze and the second line getting into the box a lot. Both teams have scored in Dortmund’s four European matches, and Villarreal has conceded goals in all four Champions League games. Personally, I find it difficult to see either team keeping a clean sheet given their attacking approach, the need for points and the defensive doubts they have been showing.

BetoThe bold one

Villarreal win. Odds 4.75

I am clearly going against the market here, but I like the odds for several reasons. First, Villarreal’s momentum in the league: four wins in a row, 29 points out of 39 and a feeling of a very confident team despite the European setback in Paphos. Secondly, their record in Germany is surprisingly good: only two defeats in seven European away games in this country, with victories in difficult venues such as Hamburg and Leverkusen. Thirdly, Dortmund come into the game with just one win in their last five official matches and with a defence that suffers greatly when the game breaks down, as we saw against Stuttgart and Manchester City in the Champions League. If BVB take an early lead and relax, Villarreal have the firepower and experience to come back or cause an upset in a back-and-forth affair.

It’s not a bet to go all in on, but as a ‘low stake’ it seems like good value to me: long odds, a visiting team in great domestic form and a Dortmund side that is less solid than its historical home strength might suggest.