Brazilian Grand Prix: odds and picks 09.11.2025

Interlagos arrives at the decisive stage of the 2025 World Championship with the title still up for grabs and McLaren leading in points. The São Paulo track rewards race pace, traction in the “Senna S” and aerodynamic efficiency in the final uphill sector, with plenty of time at full throttle.

It will be a sprint weekend (Friday shootout, Saturday sprint), with physical wear and tear due to the anti-clockwise direction and bumpy asphalt. Keep an eye on the forecast: there is a real chance of rain on all three days, which is typical in São Paulo. Historically, Red Bull and McLaren have performed well here; Ferrari and Mercedes are fast over one lap, but have ups and downs in terms of degradation. Engine penalties and parc fermé in the sprint could influence strategies.

Information: date, time and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Autódromo José Carlos Pace (Interlagos)
• Race date and time: Sunday 9 November
• Qualifying: Saturday 8 November

Odds on the winner of the Brazilian Grand Prix

Below are the current odds for the winner (market reference in Spain):

Latest news on the podium favourites

The three names with the best chances, based on recent form and the market, are Norris, Verstappen and Piastri. The fight for pole position may not coincide with Sunday’s pace, and rain could reshuffle the deck. The start and tyre management in dirty air often decide half the podium at Interlagos.

Lando Norris

Norris arrives as the narrow championship leader after a very solid Sunday in Mexico and with a McLaren that maintains the best average pace over a medium stint. In 2024, he was already very strong here (pole and victory in the sprint) and his confidence in quick weight transfers favours him in the Senna S and in the T4 braking zone.

His area for improvement is managing starts and restarts in wet conditions: in Brazil, historically, safety car periods and red flags penalise those who lose temperature in their Pirelli tyres. If the team maintains its clean pit stops and reads the slick/intermediate window well, he is the number one contender.

He tends to take good care of the medium tyre in the second stint, which is key with safety cars that ‘break’ the traditional windows.

Max Verstappen

Although Red Bull has not been the benchmark car in 2025, Verstappen maintains a very high execution rate on chaotic Sundays. Interlagos suits him: he drives aggressively under braking and knows how to find space in T1-T2 with controlled risk.

His record here is excellent, with recent victories and decisive manoeuvres in wet conditions. If the RB achieves a more consistent balance in the mid-corners of the second sector and better rear support to avoid overheating the left rear, his ceiling is once again victory.

In qualifying, it could start from the second row; with a flexible strategy (early undercut or overcut if there is low degradation) and a pit wall that reacts to safety cars, it is the natural rival of the McLarens.

Oscar Piastri: current situation and possibilities

Piastri arrives in São Paulo one point behind the leader after a very strong mid-season, although with a few Sundays stuck in dirty air. Interlagos rewards his precision in direction changes: in dry conditions, his delta in the second sector is usually among the best.

He was key in 2024 with pole position in the sprint and knows how to manage cold tyres well after neutral periods. His Achilles heel may be the start on the main straight if he starts on the dirty side. With a mixed track or early intermediate decisions, he has a real chance of ‘overcutting’ by taking advantage of the McLaren’s lower drop.

If he nails the shootout and avoids traffic, a podium finish is very likely; with rain and well-executed pit stops, it is not unreasonable to think about victory.

Circuit conditions and weather forecast

Interlagos (4.309 km, 71 laps) is run anti-clockwise, with two DRS zones: the main straight towards T1 and the ‘Reta Oposta’ before T4. Sector 2 is full of linked corners with changes in banking; sector 3 is very fast, where drag and power are important.

Bumpy asphalt, aggressive kerbs and a tendency to bottom out under compression; medium degradation with particular punishment for the rear left. Strategy window of 1-2 stops depending on temperature and safety cars.

The forecast points to a high probability of rain on Friday-Saturday-Sunday, with mild temperatures. This introduces the risk of aquaplaning on the descent to T4 and critical management of the slicks/intermediates window.

In wet conditions, pole position loses relative value and the importance of pace in clean air and decision-making from the pit wall increases.

Comparison between leading teams

McLaren arrives with the most well-rounded package: efficient load, good traction and controlled degradation in the middle stint. In sprint races, it usually scores highly thanks to its wide operating window.

Red Bull has improved on the straights and in traction, but needs stability in medium corners so as not to penalise the rear tyres; if it finds it, Verstappen makes up for the rest.

Ferrari is very competitive over one lap; in long runs, it alternates between peaks and drops depending on temperature, with particular sensitivity to front graining.

In the rain, Ferrari and Mercedes tend to warm up their tyres quickly, which is useful for restarts; McLaren, on the other hand, shines when the track is dry and can stretch out stints.

Reliability should not be a problem, but with the sprint parc fermé, any early contact compromises the long race.

Latest results at the Brazilian Grand Prix

Historically, Interlagos has produced varied results, but recent years have seen clear dominators: 2022 went to George Russell (Mercedes one-two with victory also in the sprint); 2023 was won convincingly by Max Verstappen; and in 2024 Verstappen repeated his triumph in a wet and chaotic race, with Alpine securing a surprising double podium (Ocon and Gasly). McLaren usually qualifies very well here; Red Bull tends to shine in race pace and opportunity management; Ferrari has alternated podiums with difficult Sundays due to degradation or strategic decisions.

Summary of key factors for this GP

• Bumpy track surface and sensitivity to crosswinds.
• Choice of downforce: drag vs. traction on the final climb.
• Tyre management (rear left) and temperature windows.
• Starting positions and grid side cleaning.
• Strategies with safety cars and possible pit stops under VSC.
• High risk of rain: timing of intermediates and slicks.

Brazilian Grand Prix: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

There will be at least one safety car (VSC or SC) during the race. Odds 1.55

Interlagos combines close walls, elevation changes and forecast rain. In recent years, neutralisation has been frequent and strategies are reconfigured on the fly. With rain on the radar and a very tight grid, the probability is high.

BetoThe bold one

Oscar Piastri to win. Odds 6.00

The McLaren offers the most consistent base and Piastri is usually very strong on tracks with variable grip. If the shootout and qualifying put him on the front row and the wall nails the intermediate-slick transition, he can beat Norris and Verstappen on pure pace or track position after a safety car.