Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction (Six Kings Slam): odds and picks 18.10.2025

A fierce rivalry on a unique stage: an exhibition final, giant cheques and global attention.

Alcaraz arrives on a roll after sweeping Fritz aside; Sinner, after dismantling Djokovic with authority. At the ANB Arena (indoor hard court), the bounce is lively and favours attacking tennis: deep first serves, aggressive returns and short transitions.

The recent head-to-head goes to the Murcian, but the Italian won here in 2024. A great match with the scent of a tiebreak and many games.

Date, time and where to watch Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner

• Tournament: Six Kings Slam (exhibition)
• Date and time: Saturday, 18 October 2025
• Venue: ANB Arena, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)
• Surface: Indoor hard

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: odds on the winner of the match

Carlos Alcaraz’s current form

The world number one is riding high: he beat Fritz in the semi-finals with dominant tennis and impressive returns and drop shots.

In 2025, he has strung together some huge wins (Monte Carlo, Roland Garros and the US Open), and his confidence is evident on the big points.

On the indoor court in Riyadh, his combination of open serve + cross-court forehand and changes of pace with the drop shot can dismantle Sinner’s structure if he captures the baseline early.

Key factors

The aggressive version of the return is the key: if he puts pressure on the Italian’s second serves, he shortens games and prevents Sinner from “getting up” to the line. Mentally, he arrives relaxed (exhibition format, huge prize, zero ATP points), which reduces tension and encourages creativity.

He must watch out for moments of disconnection that Sinner takes advantage of for streaks of winners. On this court, a high kick serve can earn him many free points if he mixes up the directions.

Another indicator: first serve percentage above 62% and break point conversion >35%. If he hits those thresholds, the final will go according to plan.

Jannik Sinner’s current form

Sinner arrives in commanding form after clearly defeating Djokovic (very solid serve and control of the pace).

His 2025 includes Wimbledon and a constant presence in the final rounds, with improvements in shot selection under pressure. Indoors, when he alternates between topspin and flat shots and accelerates with his parallel backhand, he is unstoppable.

In addition, he knows the environment here: he was champion in 2024 against Alcaraz himself, an emotional precedent that gives him confidence to manage heated moments.

Key factors

Sinner’s first ball determines everything: if he exceeds 65% of first serves and wins >75% with them, he dominates.

His aggressive second serve pattern and parallel backhand to open up the court are key. Mentally, he is on a roll against big names and handles long sets better.

Keep an eye on: don’t give away mid-height to Alcaraz’s right, because the Spaniard uses the time to change pace and sneak to the net. If Jannik dominates with his first shot after the serve and stifles the drop shot, he will tip the final in his favour.

Head-to-head statistics: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

Note: as this is an exhibition match, it does not count towards the official ATP H2H. Even so, the history helps to read trends.

Reading: the balance is perfect. Alcaraz dominates in rhythm and variety, but Sinner arrives with winning memories in this same tournament and with a particularly fine-tuned serve.

My predictions for Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner