Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Fijnals): odds and picks 13.11.2025

A clash with spice in the “round robin” of the Jimmy Connors group: Carlos Alcaraz faces Lorenzo Musetti on the fast indoor court in Turin.

The world number 1 arrives with two victories, but still has work to do to secure the semi-finals. Musetti, a last-minute replacement due to Djokovic’s withdrawal, has earned the right to dream after beating De Miñaur and will play backed by his home crowd.

A duel of styles: the aggression and elite return of the Spaniard versus the variety and single-handed backhand of the Italian.

Date, Time, and Where to Watch Carlos Alcaraz – Lorenzo Musetti

• Tournament: Nitto ATP Finals (Year-end Masters)
• Date: Thursday, November 13
• Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin (Italy)
• Surface: Indoor Hard Court

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti: Match Winner Odds

Carlos Alcaraz’s Current Form

Alcaraz arrives 2–0 after a valuable win against Fritz, with tactical adjustments on the return and composure in key points.

He has made a leap on indoor courts this season — with a title in Rotterdam — and his first-strike tennis fits perfectly in Turin: deep return, cross-court forehand to open the court, and occasional net approaches.

Mentally, he knows that a victory prevents calculations and keeps the fight to close the year at the top alive.

Key Factors

The court rewards aggression from the return and dominance in short rallies: two areas where the Murcian usually dictates play.

The year’s precedent (victories over Musetti in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros) boosts his confidence and offers him a clear plan: punish the Italian’s second serve and prevent him from imposing his rhythm of slice and varying heights.

The only warning: the match load and the indoor conditions, which can compress margins if his first-serve percentage drops or if the opponent has streaks of aces.

Lorenzo Musetti’s Current Form

Musetti arrives with emotional momentum after coming back against De Miñaur and with the entire Inalpi Arena on his side.

His resourceful game — sliced backhand, drop shots, changes of direction — can be uncomfortable if he manages to slow Alcaraz’s pace and lead the duel to long rallies where his talent shines.

The unknown is maintaining first-serve percentages and not giving away attackable second serves; if he secures his service games, he will have chances to stretch the sets towards tie-breaks.

Key Factors

The “at home” context multiplies energy and pressure in equal measure. Tactically, he needs to vary directions on the first serve, play a lot of cross-court backhands to open the court, and mix heights with the slice to disrupt the Spaniard’s timing.

He comes from an intense week (Athens + Turin), so the fuel in his legs and the management of pressure points will be decisive.

In recent precedents, when the match sped up, Alcaraz found more winners after the return; if Musetti manages to take it to a slower script and tie-breaks, his probability increases.

Head-to-Head Statistics: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Comparative X-ray with official and advanced sources:

Quick conclusion: the matchup favours the Spaniard due to the quality of his return and his ability to accelerate after the return. For Musetti, the path is to protect his serve as much as possible, slow down the pace with variations, and push the set towards tie-breaks.

Predictions for Carlos Alcaraz – Lorenzo Musetti

BeniThe conservative one

Alcaraz wins 2-0. Odds 1.50

His first strike works well indoors, and, above all, his return punishes the opponent’s second serve. By maintaining >60% of first serves and a positive balance in 0–4 shot points, he should impose his hierarchy.

BetoThe bold one

Alcaraz wins and at least one tie-break is played. Create a Bet – Odds 3.60

Musetti’s serve and the atmosphere can sustain a long set; on these courts, it is common for a tie-break to occur even with a clear favourite. The Spaniard has more resources on the return to break the inertia when it matters, but we see real chances of a tie-break before he closes.