Chelsea vs Arsenal (Premier League): odds and picks 30.11.2025

A massive derby at Stamford Bridge with a distinct scent of a title race. We reach Matchday 13 of the Premier League with Arsenal as league leaders on 29 points (9-2-1, 24-6 goal difference) and Chelsea in second place with 23 points (7-2-3, 23-11 goal difference).

Furthermore, both teams arrive with very positive momentum: ‘The Blues’ have won 10 of their last 13 competitive matches and have just beaten Barça 3-0 in the Champions League, while Arsenal are on a 15-match unbeaten run, coming off a 3-1 win over Bayern and a 4-1 victory over Tottenham.

What shapes the picture most for me is the clash of styles and their recent head-to-head form: Chelsea are growing significantly at home under Maresca, but have only won one of their last 12 direct duels against Arsenal and haven’t celebrated a league victory at Stamford Bridge against ‘The Gunners’ since 2018. In this context, small details—pressing after possession loss, clinical finishing in the boxes, and emotional management—will carry even more weight than pure tactics.

Chelsea

Chelsea head into this match in one of the best moments of the Maresca era. They sit 2nd in the Premier League with 23 points after 12 rounds (7-2-3, 23-11). In recent weeks, they have strung together some very serious victories: 1-0 against Tottenham, 2-0 against Burnley, and 3-0 against Wolves in the league, plus 5-1 against Ajax and 3-0 against Barcelona in the Champions League, reflecting a team clearly on the rise.

The recent form data is compelling: 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat in their last 10 matches, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, with 80% of matches ending with over 2.5 goals. At Stamford Bridge, their attacking output explodes: they have won crucial matches and frequently hover around 2–3 goals scored while keeping their own goal relatively well-protected.

Individually, the attack is very sharp: João Pedro, Pedro Neto, and Enzo Fernández have each scored 4 league goals. Additionally, Estêvão comes fresh from scoring a dream goal against Barça, and Cole Palmer could make his comeback after returning to training.

The injury list is not empty: Levi Colwill, Roméo Lavia, and Mykhailo Mudryk remain out; Palmer is doubtful. Tactically, I expect a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is now quite automated.

The main doubt remains emotional management: Chelsea sometimes struggle to kill off games, and their defeat against Sunderland serves as a good reminder of this.

Arsenal

Arsenal land at the Bridge as solid Premier League leaders: 29 points from 12 rounds (9-2-1, 24-6), boasting the championship’s best defence and a 15-match unbeaten run. They arrive with pace: 4-1 against Tottenham, 2-0 against Burnley, 1-0 against United, and a 3-1 victory over Bayern in the Champions League that reinforced their competitive authority.

Their Champions League group stage has been perfect, and their away results are very serious: wins against Newcastle, Burnley, and Fulham, with only one notable slip-up at Anfield. The team functions as a highly drilled unit.

The starting XI is very defined: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Calafiori/Hincapié, aggressive left-back; Rice–Zubimendi–Eze; Saka and Eze behind Gyökeres, with luxury reserves like Martinelli or Trossard. Gyökeres and Eze have each scored 4 goals, and Saka maintains his usual influence with assists and chances created.

Absences weigh heavily: Gabriel and Gabriel Jesus are still out; Ødegaard, Gyökeres, and Havertz are carrying knocks. Nevertheless, the squad depth allows them to maintain their level. Historical data also carries weight: Arsenal have not lost at Stamford Bridge since 2018 and have only lost once to Chelsea in their last 12 meetings.

Referee: Anthony Taylor

The match referee will be Anthony Taylor, one of the most experienced in the Premier League and a regular for big occasions. He has even officiated FA Cup finals between these two sides. His disciplinary profile is medium-strict: averaging around 3.5 yellow cards, with few reds, but a stern approach.

A relevant detail: Chelsea is the team that has received the most yellow cards under his officiating in Premier League history, something that always creates a bit of noise surrounding the fixture. In a derby with this much tension, I expect between 4 and 6 cards in total.

My Predictions for Chelsea vs Arsenal

BeniThe conservative one

Double Chance Arsenal or Draw (X2). Odds 1.35

For me, this is the logical bet within the “safe” range. Arsenal arrive as leaders, with impeccable momentum, the league’s best defence, and a 15-match unbeaten run. They compete excellently away from home, and above all, they haven’t lost at Stamford Bridge in six years. Chelsea arrive in great form, yes, but they still show signs of lapses, especially if the opponent challenges their possession or punishes the space behind the full-backs. X2 suits me perfectly as a solid base.

BetoThe bold one

Correct Score 1-1. Odds 6.50

At these high odds, I really like this result. It is one of the most probable outcomes according to statistical models and fits the scenario I have in my head: Arsenal are more reliable, but Chelsea come with very high attacking output and the confidence from the great moment they are experiencing. I don’t expect either side to completely break the game open: both have solid structures, goalkeepers in great form, and managers who tend not to risk too much in these types of duels.

I picture a very aggressive Chelsea in the first half-hour, a more controlling Arsenal thereafter, and a very tactical closing stage. 1-1 is a very plausible scenario and a good opportunity for high odds with a smaller stake.