Chelsea vs Aston Villa (Premier League): odds and bets 27.12.2025

For me, this Chelsea-Aston Villa match is one of the most exciting Boxing Day fixtures: it will be played at Stamford Bridge and, in Spanish time (Madrid), it will take place on Saturday 27 December at 5.30 p.m. In some calendars, it may appear as Sunday 28 due to the time zone (for example, in Australia).

The table says it all: Villa is third with 36 points and Chelsea fourth with 29 after 17 games, so it’s a direct battle for Champions League qualification. The key to betting is the pace: if Chelsea manages to settle in at the top and attack continuously, they have the advantage; if Villa manages to make the game one of transitions and details (divided balls, second plays), it could turn into a coin toss.

Chelsea

I’m feeling a bit strange about this one: their position is very good (4th), but their recent form has been more about open games and points slipping away than sustained dominance. In the last matchday, they drew 2-2 at Newcastle after going 0-2 down, with a great free kick from Reece James and a late equaliser from João Pedro; for betting purposes, this tells me two things: they have the character to get back into games, but also an initial fragility that can be punished by an opponent like Villa.

At home, Chelsea are W4 D2 L2 in the Premier League this season: they are not an unassailable fortress, but they are not falling apart either. And keep an eye on the squad situation: Maresca has acknowledged that Liam Delap and Dário Essugo are close to returning, while Roméo Lavia and Levi Colwill are still out (Colwill, moreover, with a serious long-term injury). With these factors in mind, my tactical reading is simple: Chelsea need a “clean” game, controlling turnovers and not giving away transitions; if they manage that, their quality up front (and the depth of their bench) usually prevails, but if they break down, they suffer.

Aston Villa

Villa are flying high. They are coming off a 2-1 win over Manchester United with a brace from Morgan Rogers, a result that left them in third place with 36 points. They have also strung together seven consecutive Premier League wins and ten in all competitions. Rogers, by the way, is having a great season: seven goals and three assists in 17 league games.

Away from home, they are not a “fragile” team either: their away record is W4 D2 L2, practically identical to Chelsea’s home record, which reinforces my idea of a balanced match. And in terms of injuries, the most notable one right now is Tyrone Mings (thigh problems, with an estimated return in early January), so they don’t seem to be particularly depleted.

What I like most about this Villa side is their competitive maturity: they don’t need to dominate to win. If Chelsea don’t open the scoring early on, Villa are comfortable waiting for their moment (a transition, an isolated move, a ball behind the defence). That’s why, when it comes to betting, I tend to look at half-time/full-time markets rather than straight 1X2 markets.

Referee: Stuart Attwell

The designated referee is Stuart Attwell. In terms of numbers, he has a rather high card profile: in Premier League 25/26, he has officiated 11 matches and averages around 4.5 cards per game. At the ‘team’ level, this season he has refereed one Chelsea match (two cards in total) and two Aston Villa matches (five cards in total), so it’s not a huge sample size, but it does suggest that he doesn’t hesitate to take action. If the match becomes tense (a direct battle for Champions League places), I wouldn’t rule out an increase in disciplinary action.

My predictions for Chelsea vs Aston Villa

BeniThe conservative one

Chelsea draw no bet (DNB) – odds 1.40

Here I’m looking for a bet that gives us a certain safety net. Chelsea at home isn’t overwhelming (W4 D2 L2), but they do tend to compete, and the DNB covers the scenario I see as most likely if Villa holds on: a hard-fought draw. In addition, Villa are on a brutal run (7 in a row in the league), and that often pushes you not to go so aggressively with the 1 fixed: DNB seems to me the most sensible way to position myself on the home side without suffering if the match gets stuck.

BetoThe bold one

Draw at half-time / Chelsea wins at full time (X/1) – odds 5.00

Este pick me cuadra mucho: Villa suele manejar bien los tramos iniciales porque no necesita la pelota para sentirse cómodo, y Chelsea viene de un partido en el que tuvo que remar y remontar (2-2 en Newcastle). Si el primer tiempo acaba igualado (0-0 / 1-1), veo a Chelsea creciendo por acumulación en la segunda parte, empujado por Stamford Bridge y por la necesidad de apretar esa carrera por el top-4. No es una corazonada: es un partido de márgenes finos donde el descanso puede ser de equilibrio y el desenlace decantarse por detalle y localía.