Chelsea vs Barcelona (Champions League): odds and picks 25.11.2025

We have a top-level Chelsea vs Barcelona match at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday 25 November, in the middle of the Champions League group stage. They are practically tied in the European table with 7 points each in 4 games, although Barça has a better goal difference. It is a direct duel to get closer to the Top 8 and avoid the play-offs.

The form is there: Chelsea are second in the Premier League after a 2-0 win at Burnley and have strung together three consecutive league wins. Barça arrive in London after a 4-0 win over Athletic and sharing the lead in LaLiga. For me, the match smells like a controlled exchange of blows: Chelsea are more vertical than in previous years and Flick’s Barça have a clear offensive vocation even away from home.

Chelsea

I see this Chelsea side at its best this season. In the league, they are coming off a 1-0 win over Tottenham, a 3-0 win over Wolves and a 2-0 win over Burnley, conceding only one goal in those three games and looking very compact. In the Champions League, after losing in Munich, they have responded with a 1-0 win over Benfica, a 5-1 win over Ajax and a 2-2 draw in Azerbaijan, scoring seven goals in their last two European games.

Maresca’s plan is clear: clean start, very involved full-backs, Caicedo-Enzo double pivot for balance and three attacking midfielders feeding the striker. The loss of Cole Palmer reduces creativity between the lines, and there are also doubts about Lavia and Colwill, although Fofana is beginning to emerge as an alternative.

At Stamford Bridge, they are performing very well in Europe: they have hardly lost at home in the group stage in recent years and have scored some big wins recently. Their strength is their defensive structure: organised pressing and tight lines. Their weakness is defensive transitions when the team stretches too far. Against players like Lewandowski, Ferran and Yamal, any loss of possession is very costly.

Barcelona

Barça are in top form. In the league, they have won three games in a row, 3-1, 4-2 and 4-0, showing great offensive fluidity since Flick established a stable starting eleven. In the Champions League, although with more chaotic matches, they have produced a lot: 2-1 at Newcastle, 1-2 against PSG, 6-1 against Olympiacos and 3-3 in Belgium, with 12 goals in four matches.

The squad arrives with ups and downs. Frenkie de Jong, Rashford and Balde are back, but Pedri, Gavi and Ter Stegen are still out. This forces a more direct midfield and an alternative goalkeeper. Flick is opting for an aggressive 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with Casadó or Eric García alongside De Jong, Yamal and Ferran very wide and Lewandowski pinning down the centre-backs. Fermín is coming on strong from the second line.

The great strength of this Barça side is its attacking power: Yamal is in constant creative mode, Rashford provides depth and Lewandowski continues to make the difference. The problem is in defence: they have conceded in three of their four Champions League games and suffer when they are pressed in the area or attacked down the wings. Against a Chelsea side with very physical forwards, this could lead to chances against them, although Barça have plenty of talent to punish any space.

Referee: Slavko Vinčić

The referee will be Slovenian Slavko Vinčić, one of the most experienced referees in Europe with a history of officiating in Champions League finals. He is a firm referee, averaging around four yellow cards per game and peaking at five or six in high-tension matches. He does not usually hesitate to show cards in intense situations.

He has a history with both clubs: he has refereed Barça in several tough matches and has also officiated important Chelsea games. With the stage set for a big match, high tempo and a lot of midfield battles, I expect a high number of cards, probably in the region of 4-6.

My predictions for Chelsea vs Barcelona

I see a very competitive match, with chances for both sides and a high tempo. Chelsea are strong at home and Barça, although inconsistent at the back, are very powerful in attack. That’s why I prefer alternative markets to the 1X2, which is very even.

BeniThe conservative one

Over 3.5 total cards. Odds 1.40

I am basing this on Vinčić’s profile and the expected intensity. Both teams tend to commit tactical fouls and protests arise as soon as the match heats up. With two such physical teams and a lot at stake in terms of qualification, I find it hard to see a match with only 2 or 3 yellow cards.

BetoThe bold one

Barcelona does not lose and both teams score (X2 + BTTS). Odds 2.50

Both teams are generating a lot in attack and it is difficult to imagine a match without goals from both sides. Barça has more recent European experience and, all things being equal, I see them as slightly better suited to this type of scenario. The risk lies in the Stamford Bridge factor, but I see a 1-1, 2-2 or even a 1-2 result as very likely, which would validate the pick.