Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns (NBA): odds and picks 26.10.2025

With Denver at 1.15 and Phoenix at 5.40, this is no longer a pick’em: the market sees this as a very one-sided match. And, honestly, I buy that reading. At Ball Arena, the Nuggets dominate in rebounds and tempo; they don’t need a huge 3P% to pull away. With Jokić-Murray at the wheel and Gordon/MPJ closing out the glass, the “run” usually comes in the third quarter.

Phoenix can only stay in the game if they run after rebounds, shoot above their average from three-point range and reduce turnovers to a minimum. If the game turns into a 5×5 positional battle, the script favours Denver and the difference can grow without the need for heroics.

Information: date, time and where to watch the game

• Competition: NBA
• Date: Sunday, 26 October 2025

Odds for the winner of the Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns match

 (Reference odds; may vary until the time of the match)

Latest news on the Denver Nuggets

A recognisable and mature team: low turnovers, control of the pace and rebounding as a foundation. At home, they tend to punish opponents with patience: Jokić reading the post/elbow, Gordon cuts and MPJ catch & shoot. If they avoid going into bonus early, they manage the end of the game without any surprises.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Jamal Murray
• Shooting guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Small forward: Michael Porter Jr.
• Power forward: Aaron Gordon
• Centre: Nikola Jokić

Reading: Murray-Jokić 2×2 to collapse and double; KCP gives oxygen back and corner; MPJ punishes the long rebound; Gordon lives off cuts and second options. With medium-low pace, Denver puts you to sleep.

Denver: breaking news

Plan: slow down the pace, win the glass and don’t give away transitions. Tactical signal: load up on offensive rebounds if Phoenix goes small and look for fouls on the opposing 5. If the 3Q run appears (8-0/10-2 typical at Ball Arena), the handicap skyrockets.

Current situation in the NBA

At home, their “minimum competitiveness” is high: 36% in T3 and controlled losses are enough for them. When they are ahead, they close out without accelerating: long possessions, free throws and defence without silly fouls.

Latest news on the Phoenix Suns

They have talent – Booker as the focal point – but away from home they suffer from rebounding and balance after losses. To compete here, they need to open up the court, score in the corners and run only with a real advantage. If they get into a static 5×5 and don’t touch the bonus, the scoring becomes an uphill battle for them.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Devin Booker (primary playmaker)
• Shooting guard: Grayson Allen (spacer)
• Small forward: 3&D small forward to match up with big wings
• Power forward: open four to stretch 45º
• Centre: mobile interior to continue and protect the rim

Reading: Booker to the centre block to double up on shooters; Allen thrives on catch-and-shoot; with an open four, there are penetration lanes, but the 5 must avoid getting loaded up or the rebound will sink.

Phoenix: breaking news

Priorities: ≤12 turnovers, close out own rebounds and force pace with short runs (steal + three-pointer). Where they suffer most is defending the corner if they collapse the paint. If the 3P doesn’t cross 37%, Denver’s margin grows.

Current situation in the NBA

They are at their best in exchanges of blows and clean transitions; when the opponent freezes the pace, they depend on their star’s streaks and outside shooting. In height, the fuel of the third quarter can take its toll.

Recent matchups between Denver and Phoenix

Clear recent pattern: when Denver wins the rebound and takes control of the game, they manage the endings; Phoenix has bitten back when they connected early three-pointers and forced back-and-forth play. In Denver, the local break window usually comes between 28′ and 36′, with two consecutive stops and points on the counterattack.

Summary of key factors in this match

• Pace: half court – Denver; back and forth – Phoenix.
• Rebounds: clear home advantage if the Suns go small.
• PHX turnovers (≤12): red line to avoid conceding runs.
• 2×2 Jokić-Murray: don’t overdo help defence or give away corners.
• Third quarter at Ball Arena: usual window for a breakaway.
• Free throws: if Denver reaches the bonus first, the margin increases.

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns: our prediction