Elche vs Real Madrid (La Liga): odds and picks 23.11.2025

Matchday 13 of LaLiga EA Sports at the Martínez Valero, on Sunday 23rd November.

We arrive at this match with an attractive context: Elche 11th with 15 points (3-6-3, -1), newly promoted but very competitive, against a Real Madrid leader with 31 points (10-1-1, +16) and the obligation to defend the top spot.

For me, the key factors are clear:

1. A full stadium and an Elche side that hasn’t lost at home in the league, with a very defined possession model;
2. A Madrid very dominant in results, but with a certain Mbappé-dependency and a small dip in form before the break;
3. Absences and returns: Elche recovers its captain Bigas, while Madrid hopes to count on Mbappé, Valverde and Courtois again, although still without Tchouaméni or Rüdiger.

Elche

Éder Sarabia’s Elche is one of those “signature” teams. Their start in the First Division is proving more than respectable: 3 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, with 13 goals for and 14 against. What strikes me most is their playing profile: they average around 59% possession in the league and have even been able to dictate play with the ball at big grounds, like the day of the 3-1 at Montjuïc against Barça, where they finished with 51% and generated clear chances.

That said, they arrive on a modest run: defeats against Barça, Espanyol and Alavés, plus draws against Real Sociedad and Athletic. They compete, but struggle to transform good play into points. In exchange, they are proving very reliable at home, where they still haven’t tasted defeat in the league.

Regarding names, the offensive focus is on Rafa Mir and André Silva, both with 4 league goals, plus the contribution of Germán Valera from midfield. The good news for Sarabia is the recovery of Pedro Bigas, now available after his muscle injury, while Josan and John Chetauya have worked separately as a precaution and Rodrigo Mendoza returns from the U21s.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrives as a solid leader: 10 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the league, with 26 goals scored and 10 conceded. They come from a 4-0 win against Valencia that reinforced their command of the table, although before the break they left a 0-0 in Vallecas and a greyer duel at Anfield, where that feeling of dependence on Mbappé reappeared.

The big topic is precisely Kylian Mbappé: 13 league goals, 18 in 16 official matches, more than 50% of the team’s total. He arrives after discomfort with France, but everything indicates he will be ready. When he, Vinícius and Güler coincide, Madrid has a trident that concentrates more than 80% of the team’s goals.

Xabi Alonso’s Madrid combines high pressure, long spells of possession and a clear tendency towards Over 2.5 in the league. Against a rival that wants possession like Elche, the Whites can do damage by stealing high or running. Their challenge is not to fall into a jam if the 0-0 drags on and Mbappé fails to break through.

My predictions for Elche vs Real Madrid

The odds make everything very clear: Real Madrid favourite, with the 1X2 moving around Elche 7.50, draw 5.50 and Madrid between 1.34–1.38.

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid wins. Odds 1.40

With the squad difference, the competitive momentum (10-1-1 in league), the offensive punch and the return of key pieces, the away 1X2 fits me totally. Elche competes and will have the ball, but Madrid has plenty of ways to do damage. A somewhat higher variant without leaving the prudent profile would be: Real Madrid wins + Over 1.5 match goals, which usually rises to 1.50–1.55.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid wins + Both Teams to Score: NO. Odds 2.90

This is the script that fits best if the match follows logic: white victory with a clean sheet. Elche plays well, but lacks a killer instinct, and Madrid, if they strike first, knows how to close out matches with Courtois and a block that concedes little. Scenarios I visualise: 0-1, 0-2.

For a more aggressive profile: Correct score 0-2, normally above 6.00.

How I would play it

• Conservative: Real Madrid wins → 1.34–1.38 → 1.25–1.5u
• Risky: Real Madrid wins + BTTS NO → 2.60–2.90 → 0.75–1u

The general reading is that Madrid’s momentum, combined with Elche’s lack of efficiency, clearly tilts the match, although the setting (full Martínez Valero and a brave team on the ball) guarantees it won’t be a stroll.