Etcheverry vs Fery (Australian Open): odds and picks 21.01.2026

Tomás Martín Etcheverry and Arthur Fery are playing for much more than just a round in Melbourne: for the Argentine, it is a test of strength and skill against an uninhibited opponent; for the Briton, it is an opportunity to confirm that his emergence is not a flash in the pan. On hard courts, serving and managing the “hot” moments weigh heavily, and here Etcheverry’s experience clashes with Fery’s freshness (and element of surprise).

Date, time and where to watch Etcheverry v Fery

• Tournament: Australian Open (Grand Slam)
• Date: Wednesday 21/01/2026
• Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne (Australia)
• Surface: Hard court (GreenSet)

Etcheverry vs Fery: odds on the winner of the match

Tomás Martín Etcheverry’s current form

Etcheverry arrives with his confidence levels high: in the first round, he had to roll up his sleeves in a long and demanding match, but he came through his debut in tough conditions, with a lot of wear and tear and pressure points. That, in a Grand Slam, is usually worth its weight in gold: it takes away your nerves and gets you into the real rhythm of competition. The question is whether he can maintain his intensity without losing focus, something that sometimes penalises him when the match gets messy.

Key factors

On the hard courts of Melbourne, Etcheverry needs to command with his first serve and forehand so that the match does not turn into a pointless exchange. If his first serve percentage holds up, he wins a lot of ‘cheap’ points and takes time away from his opponent. Even so, his tennis tends to perform better when he can build patiently from the baseline, and that on fast hard courts requires him to refine his shot selection: if he rushes, he gives away points.

Another important point is managing the pressure. Last year, he did not achieve a great result here, so he is not coming in with too many points to defend, but he does have an internal obligation to step up. After surviving a long debut, many players compete more freely in the next round… as long as their physical condition allows.

Arthur Fery’s current form

Fery is experiencing one of those moments that change the season: he has just pulled off one of the surprises of the tournament and, what’s more, he did it with personality, without hiding in the big moments. That kind of victory boosts confidence, and when a young player comes into a match ‘hot’, he is extremely dangerous. The question is how he will respond now that he is no longer the underdog: his opponent will study him more closely and the match will be played over five sets.

Key factors

The first is competitive momentum: coming in with matches under your belt (and positive feelings) can be an advantage in the early rounds, especially if your opponent is coming off a long match. Mentally, Fery has a bit of cheekiness that can sometimes throw people off: he plays without the weight of favouritism and allows himself to take risks on big points.

The risk for him lies in the bumps: if his first serve percentage drops or he starts to struggle with his second serve, Etcheverry will have time to put pressure on him and force him into heavier exchanges. In a five-set match, it’s not enough to peak at one point; you need to sustain it, and that’s where experience often makes the difference.

Head-to-head statistics: Etcheverry vs Fery

There are no previous significant head-to-head matches between the two on the main circuit, so the most useful comparison is by profile and overall performance in serving and returning.

The reading is clear: Etcheverry has more “structure” to endure a long match (maintaining his serve, weathering bad moments and coming back). Fery compensates with freshness and a recent surge in confidence, but he needs to play many stretches above his average for the surprise to be real.

Our prediction(s) for Etcheverry – Fery

BeniThe conservative one

Etcheverry wins the match. Odds 1.57

If the Argentine maintains a decent percentage of first serves, his game will be more orderly: fewer exchanges on the counter and more points closed out with the first shot. In five sets, experience and the ability to manage tension usually prevail. The plan is simple: hold his serve with authority and punish the Briton’s second serves when the match enters a phase of attrition.

BetoThe bold one

Fery wins 3-1 (exact score 1-3). Odds 6.00

This bet only makes sense if you buy into the “streak” scenario: Fery starting off loose, taking an early set and playing from the initiative, without letting Etcheverry take control. The 3-1 fits with a match in which the Argentine has a clear slump in one set (something that can happen after a demanding debut) and the Brit takes advantage of it without having to hold five sets.