Everton vs Liverpool (Premier League): odds and bets 19.04.2026

The Merseyside Derby comes at a very unusual time (which is why I like it for betting): Everton are in the European places and Liverpool are also in that fight, so it’s not the typical ‘romantic’ derby with nothing at stake. What’s more, playing it in a new stadium always adds tension: more noise, more nerves and, often, more interruptions and set-piece situations.

In footballing terms, I expect a match with two distinct phases: a strong start from Everton, pressing high up the pitch and flooding the box, and a Liverpool side that alternates between periods of control and moments of fragility when off the ball. With so much emotion involved, for me the markets with the most value are usually those that capture the script: cards, double chance and goal scenarios, rather than predicting an exact score.

Everton

I see Everton as being much more recognisable in this phase: a compact team, with Pickford marshalling the defence and a unit that doesn’t break down easily. Their recent form has been competitive, with matches where they’ve managed to secure important results and, above all, give the impression that they’re always ‘in the game’ even when they’re under pressure.

In terms of style, the traditional Everton in derbies suits me, but with nuances: when the game calls for it, they go direct, whip in crosses and look for second balls; and when they can, they try to be more patient so as not to give away transitions. If the ‘9’ is on form (like Beto in the box), it’s a team that turns an ugly game into a dangerous one, because they force you to defend a lot inside the box.

The key for me today is simple: if Everton manage to turn the match into a battle of one-on-ones, second balls and set-pieces, they’ll feel comfortable. And in a derby, feeling comfortable is already half the battle. If they can also apply intensity without overdoing it, they can hurt a Liverpool side that isn’t always solid at the back.

Liverpool

Liverpool come into the game with greater quality, but with a significant ‘but’: lately they have shown more vulnerability than usual. They have brilliant spells (because they have the talent), but also phases where they concede chances they didn’t concede before, especially when they lose their shape after losing possession or when they are attacked behind the full-backs.

In attack, the plan remains very recognisable: if Salah has space or if the attacking midfielders find space between the lines, Liverpool create danger almost without needing to dominate for 70 minutes. What concerns me is that, if there are absences or forced changes in defence and goal, the match becomes more ‘human’ for them… and the derby, when it’s human, is uncomfortable.

When it comes to betting, I don’t get hung up on ‘whether Liverpool are better’: I look at whether they can impose their rhythm without getting bogged down. If they do get bogged down, the match becomes much more about the finer details, and that’s where Everton thrive.

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Kavanagh tends to be a referee who cuts play short with fouls and issues cards at a rate that, in heated matches, can easily spiral out of control. In a derby of this calibre, the typical scenario is that he either cuts play short early on and hands out a flurry of yellows, or lets play continue for 15–20 minutes and then has to ‘regain’ control through bookings.

That’s why, if I were to look at an alternative market to the 1X2, the first thing I’d check is total cards or cards per team. In this type of match, the refereeing has a greater than usual influence on the pace and the value of the bets.