Fulham vs Manchester City (Premier League): odds and picks 02.12.2025

A very exciting match at Craven Cottage on Tuesday 2 December. Fulham are 15th with 17 points (5-2-6, 15-17 goal difference), much more comfortable than a month ago but still looking over their shoulder at relegation. Their big advantage is home field: 4 wins, 1 draw and only 1 loss at home, with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded in the Premier League.

City, meanwhile, are in 2nd place with 25 points (8-1-4) and 27 goals scored in 13 games, but with more doubts than usual after two consecutive league defeats before the hard-fought 3-2 win over Leeds and the European defeat to Leverkusen. Even so, the history is very tough: City have won the last 18 games against Fulham and have not lost at Craven Cottage since 2005.

I come away with the feeling of a clash between a very strong Fulham at home and a somewhat more down-to-earth City, but with plenty of firepower and a total obligation to win if they don’t want to fall behind in the Premier League.

Fulham

Fulham has changed a lot in a few weeks. Their 5-2-6 record may seem modest, but the breakdown tells the whole story: 13 of those 17 points have come at home, where they are 4-1-1 and have become a very reliable side. Their recent form also gives cause for optimism: four wins in their last five official matches, reflecting a real reaction after a weaker spell.

In attack, they are not an explosive team, but they are more varied than they appear. Iwobi, Smith Rowe, Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez share the goals, with constant contributions from the wings and second-line play. Fulham generate around one goal per game, but at home they multiply their output thanks to the momentum of the stadium and a very clear plan based on crosses, pace and aggression in the opposition’s half.

The depth of the squad is their biggest problem: Rodrigo Muniz is out with a hamstring injury, forcing Marco Silva to rotate less than he would like up front. Even so, the starting eleven is well defined: Leno; Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Sessegnon; Berge and Iwobi or Lukic in the double pivot; and up front Wilson, Smith Rowe, King and Raúl Jiménez as the reference point.

At Craven Cottage, where the team defends very tightly and presses high up the pitch with intensity, Fulham become a difficult opponent. Their weak point is in defensive switching when the opposition accelerates through the middle, which is exactly where City can do a lot of damage.

Manchester City

City come into this game in a slightly strange situation: their league record is good (8-1-4, 25 points, 27-18 goals), but their recent form has raised questions. They are coming off two consecutive Premier League defeats before the 3-2 win over Leeds and the European blow suffered at home to Leverkusen. Even so, they remain the most prolific team in the league, averaging almost two goals per game.

The biggest difference compared to other years is away from home: only two wins in six away games, with more difficulty controlling games without Rodri. Haaland continues to be the big threat — 14 goals in the Premier League — and Foden is in fine form after his brace and decisive goal against Leeds.

The likely starting eleven includes Donnarumma; a defence with Nunes, Rúben Dias, Gvardiol and a young full-back like O’Reilly; midfield for Reijnders, Bernardo and Nico González; and up front Doku and Foden accompanying Haaland. The most significant absences are Rodri and Kovacic, forcing City to adopt a more vertical and less controlled plan than usual.

Without Rodri, the team tends to break up more: it loses stability and suffers in defensive transition, but in return gains energy in the final third. If it manages to shut Fulham down, it can create a lot, but if the game breaks down, it can suffer at the back.

Referee: Craig Pawson

Craig Pawson will be the referee for the match, a referee with many years of experience in the English elite and a medium-high disciplinary profile. He usually gives around 3.3 yellow cards per game and a few red cards per season. He is not overly card-happy, but he does not hesitate to stop play if the game gets heated.

The scenario suggests a range of 4-6 yellow cards: Fulham tend to commit quite a few fouls when they are under pressure and City, without Rodri, are often late to press. I don’t expect a game with red cards unless there is a final breakdown, but I do expect one with quite a lot of contact.

My predictions for Fulham vs Manchester City

BeniThe conservative one

Over 1.5 goals for Manchester City. Odds 1.50

To play it safe, I’m going with City scoring at least two goals. They average 1.9 goals per game, and when they play away with the need to win, they tend to go all out. In addition, Fulham concede more when attacked from the inside and have already suffered several games against big teams with 2+ goals conceded. I imagine City pressing from the first quarter of an hour, with Foden and Doku breaking lines and Haaland creating clear chances. Most possible scenarios — 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 0-3 — involve City scoring at least two goals, so this pick seems perfect to me as a base or combination.

BetoThe bold one

Manchester City to win and both teams to score. Odds 3.00

For the high odds, I’m going with a combination that fits the profile of the match very well: City are favourites, but they won’t keep a clean sheet. Guardiola’s side are showing defensive cracks away from home, and Fulham, at Craven Cottage, almost always find a clear chance or a set piece to score.

I see a match with alternatives: Fulham compete, press, maybe score first or equalise, but end up retreating too much. City, through sheer firepower, end up winning. Scores like 1-2 or 1-3 fit perfectly here. It’s a risky pick, but very consistent with the current dynamics of both teams.