Humphries vs Chisnall (PDC World Masters): odds and picks 30.01.2026

This is a proper “profile vs puncher” tie, but the World Masters format keeps it honest: best-of-5 sets, and every set is only best-of-3 legs at Arena MK. In other words, you don’t need to dominate for long — you just need to win the key moments. One early break or one scrappy doubles leg can swing a set immediately, which is why I always tread carefully with short-format set play.

From a betting point of view, I’m looking at Humphries’ control and finishing against Chisnall’s raw scoring and 180 volume. The match usually comes down to whether Dave can keep it at his pace (fast, heavy scoring, constant pressure) or whether Luke drags it into a more clinical rhythm where missed doubles get punished quickly.

Luke Humphries

When Humphries is on-song, he’s one of the best “game managers” in the sport: he doesn’t just score well, he wins legs efficiently. That matters here because best-of-3-leg sets reward the player who converts chances first time. Luke’s biggest strength for me is how often he turns a decent scoring leg into a clean finish — he’s comfortable on the traditional routes, and he rarely looks flustered when it gets down to one dart at double.

In this kind of format, I’m also backing his temperament. Humphries is very good at resetting after a loose leg, and that’s a massive edge when sets are so short. He can lose a leg, shrug it off, and still take the set 2–1 without spiralling. The flip side is that, because sets are tiny, even Humphries can look “fine but not flying” and still be a break down in a set — so he has to start sharp.

Tactically, I expect Luke to lean into steady set-up play (leaving favoured doubles rather than forcing hero shots). If his doubling is anywhere near his normal level, he should create enough separation across five sets to get the job done without needing to hit the ceiling.

Dave Chisnall

With Chisnall, the equation is usually straightforward: if he’s piling in 180s and winning the scoring battle, he’s a nightmare. He can make even top players feel like they’re chasing from visit two, and that pressure changes how opponents approach finishes. In a short set, that can be decisive — one burst of maximums, one early break, set in the bag.

The concern (and it’s not new) is that his matches can hinge on timing at the doubles. Over longer formats, you can ride out a patch of missed doubles if you keep scoring; in best-of-3-leg sets, a couple of missed darts can cost you the entire set before you’ve even settled. So for Dave to threaten here, I want to see him converting early chances and not letting Humphries off the hook.

The upside for Chisnall backers is obvious: he doesn’t need to outplay Luke for an hour. He needs two legs, repeated often enough to keep the tie alive — and if he gets a foothold, his scoring can absolutely force a deciding set.

My picks for Humphries vs Chisnall

BeniThe conservative one

Humphries to win 3–0. Odds 2.63

I know this sits slightly above the “safe” range some people use, but in this matchup it’s the conservative angle I actually like most because it aligns with Luke’s clearest edge: he’s the tidier closer. If Humphries starts well and wins the first-set doubles battle, it can snowball quickly in this format — Chisnall might outscore him in patches, but if Luke is pinching the key legs and taking sets 2–0, the match can look comfortable very fast. For me, it’s a bet on Humphries being efficient rather than spectacular.

BetoThe bold one

Chisnall to win 3–2 – Odds 10.00

This is the “if it gets wild” play. The path is clear: Dave lands a couple of big scoring sets, forces Luke into longer checkouts, and takes it deep. If we get to 2–2, pressure flips completely — and Chisnall’s ability to rattle in maximums gives him a genuine chance to steal a deciding set even against a favourite. I wouldn’t make this my main stake, but at 9/1 it’s the kind of price I’ll take when the format is short and the underdog has a real, repeatable weapon (scoring power) that can swing sets quickly.