Inter Milan vs Liverpool (Champions League): odds and picks 09.12.2025

A big match at San Siro to close out the 25/26 Champions League group stage. Inter come into the game as one of the most reliable teams in the tournament (four wins and only one defeat, 12 goals scored and three conceded) and with the stadium behind them. Liverpool, on the other hand, combine a good European run with a serious crisis in the Premier League and a dressing room in turmoil over the Salah case.

For this type of match, I look at three things: recent form, morale and tactical fit. Inter are coming off the back of wins over Como (4-0) and Venezia (5-1), confirming that they are very strong at home. Liverpool have been conceding too many goals (0-3 vs Nottingham Forest, 1-4 vs PSV) and have had poor results against mid-table opponents such as Sunderland and Leeds. With this contrast in momentum, for me the value is clearly on the Nerazzurri side, but we need to fine-tune the market.

Inter Milan

Inter are competing very seriously this year. In Serie A, they remain at the top, just behind Napoli, who have just taken the lead by one point, which speaks to the consistency of Chivu’s team. They are coming off two consecutive wins (4-0 against Como and 5-1 against Venezia) and a solid 2-0 win in Pisa, which have made up for their only two recent blemishes: the 0-1 defeat in the derby against Milan and the 2-1 defeat at the Metropolitano against Atlético.

In the Champions League, they are playing like a big team: four wins and one defeat in a demanding group (Ajax 0-2 Inter, Inter 3-0 Slavia, Union SG 0-4 Inter, Inter 2-1 Kairat, Atleti 2-1 Inter), with 12 goals scored and only three conceded, and three clean sheets. The European San Siro carries weight: at home, they have won both Champions League matches, scoring at least two goals.

Individually, Lautaro Martínez is in leader mode, the team’s top scorer with 11 goals this season, 4 of them in the Champions League, and also a leading figure in xG. Around him, Calhanoglu and Barella provide a constant passing line and a lot of aggression in pressing, while Dimarco and Carlos Augusto generate a lot of width from the wings.

There are important absences at full-back (Dumfries and Darmian out), but the 3-5-2 structure is so ingrained that the team hardly suffers. I particularly like how they are managing the big games: a medium-high block, very coordinated pressing after losing possession and an enormous ability to settle into the opposition’s half. Against a fragile Liverpool defence, that could be decisive.

Liverpool

Liverpool are going through a difficult period. They are eighth in the Premier League, a long way off last season’s level and on a very tough run of form: heavy defeats to Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest, as well as a 4-1 home defeat to PSV in the Champions League. They are coming off a 3-3 draw at Leeds and a 1-1 draw at Anfield against Sunderland, in a match where they saved themselves at the end and avoided what would have been their tenth defeat in 14 games.

In Europe, however, the balance is not so bad: three wins and two defeats in this phase of the league (3-2 against Atlético, 0-1 at Galatasaray, 1-5 at Frankfurt, 1-0 against Real Madrid and the recent 1-4 against PSV), with ten goals scored and eight conceded. This tells you that the competitive ceiling is still there, but also that the team is very vulnerable when the opponent challenges them in midfield and attacks the spaces behind the full-backs.

The mood is perhaps the most worrying factor: the open war between Salah and Slot, with the Egyptian publicly criticising the club and the manager, has created tension in the dressing room at a key moment in the season. And although Salah continues to be decisive in Europe, it is unclear whether he will start in Milan.

Tactically, Slot’s 4-2-3-1 suffers greatly when it loses the first press. Konaté and Van Dijk are more exposed than in previous years, and the double pivot (Mac Allister-Gravenberch) does not always protect transitions well. The last five official matches reflect a team that alternates between good spells and serious disconnections, capable of going from dominating to being overwhelmed in a matter of minutes. In a heated atmosphere like San Siro, that is a huge risk.

Referee: Felix Zwayer

The referee appointed is Germany’s Felix Zwayer, a UEFA elite category referee with extensive experience in big European nights, including the 2025 Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham. In terms of discipline, his statistics show that he is not exactly lenient: he averages around 4.0-4.5 yellow cards per game over more than 500 matches, with more than 2,000 yellow cards and several red cards in his career.

In the Champions League, his averages tend to rise slightly, with a tendency to protect attacking play and punish tactical fouls with yellow cards. He does not have a particularly heavy recent history with Inter or Liverpool, although he did referee the Reds in a Liverpool-Porto group stage match in 2021. For card markets, I would classify him as a ‘neutral-high’ referee: he is not a card-happy referee, but in a match of this intensity, seeing 4-6 yellow cards is entirely possible.

My predictions for Inter Milan vs Liverpool

BeniThe conservative one

Inter Milan to win with Draw No Bet (Inter draw no bet). Odds 1.53

Here I am going for the “safe” option, within reason. Inter come into this game with four wins and one defeat in this Champions League campaign, a goal difference of 12-3 and two solid home wins, while Liverpool are on a run of poor form, having lost 4-1 to PSV and showing many defensive doubts. The DNB covers us for a possible draw on a tense night and lets us win if the logic of the current dynamic prevails: Inter dominating possession, Lautaro in fine form and a San Siro crowd pushing them on, against a Liverpool side that struggles away from home when the opposition attacks them down the wings and threatens them in space. For me, odds of 1.53 for this scenario are clearly good value at bet365.

BetoThe bold one

Inter wins at half-time and full-time (HT/FT 1/1). Odds 3.40

If we’re looking to increase the odds, I like the scenario in which Inter come out strong and quickly break down a mentally fragile Liverpool. The Nerazzurri are coming off the back of scoring early and completely dominating Como and Venezia, and in the Champions League they have already shown their ability to get games on track from the start (3-0 against Slavia, 4-0 against Union SG). Liverpool, on the other hand, is a team that falls apart when it concedes first: it has not won a single league game this season after falling behind, and Sunderland and Leeds punished them precisely in those moments of confusion. With an electric atmosphere, a home side that knows how to manage its advantage and a Liverpool side that is emotionally affected by the Salah case, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a 1-0 half-time score that ends up 2-0 or 2-1 at full time. At odds of 3.40 on bet365, I think that scenario is an acceptable risk for a low/medium stake pick.

As always, I would advise you to manage your stake wisely: the strongest main market is Inter’s DNB, and HT/FT 1/1 is a risky bet to give you an extra boost for the night.