Juventus vs Benfica (Champions League): odds and picks 21.01.2026

A big match with high stakes. We reach Matchday 7 of this Champions League group stage with Juve in the upper-middle of the table and Benfica one step below, so it’s a “final” for both teams: whoever wins will be in real contention for the playoffs.

I see it from a clear perspective: Juventus feels more comfortable in tight games at home, while Mourinho’s Benfica tends to compete better when the opponent gets impatient. In addition, at this stage, both teams have similar card records, and Juve tends to commit more fouls: if the referee is card-happy, it could affect the pace and type of game (more scrappy and less fluid).

Juventus

Juve arrive with the typical “mixed feelings”: they have picked up points in Europe, but are coming off a recent setback in Serie A that puts extra pressure on them at the Allianz. In the Champions League group stage, their overall record is competitive, with goals at both ends: they are not an ultra-defensive team this year, but they are one that alternates between periods of control and lapses in concentration.

At home, their European numbers explain why I tend to respect them: they rarely fall out of the game in Turin, even if they concede. Away from home, they drop off a bit, which is normal for a team that needs its context to dominate. This tells me that Juventus, if they take the lead, know how to manage the game, but if the match is tied, they can suffer.

In terms of players, I like that they have players who can go back and forth, winning metres and second plays (and in this type of covert knockout tie, that’s worth its weight in gold). Strength: they compete well when the script is tactical and with few concessions. Weakness: if the game breaks down and there are transitions, they suffer… and Benfica are precisely the kind of team that punish you when you lose your shape.

Benfica

Mourinho’s Benfica arrives with the message that “it’s a final” and, honestly, I believe him: they have to get points to stay in the playoff race. In this Champions League, their numbers have been more modest, which usually translates into matches where they prioritise not giving anything away rather than going for the exchange.

The key difference is in their home/away performance in Europe: away from home, Benfica have not been overwhelming, but they have not been bleeding either. And they arrive with a league result that takes the pressure off and restores their confidence, which in a game like this is very noticeable in their decision-making.

I am concerned about the recent head-to-head: Benfica has hurt Juve and, in fact, won 2-0 in the last match in Turin. That doesn’t win today’s match, but it does show that Benfica knows how to make them uncomfortable: blocking, patience and cunning at the right moment.

My predictions for Juventus vs Benfica

BeniThe conservative one

Double chance 12 (Juventus or Benfica). Odds 1.28

Here I am looking to eliminate the ‘noise’ of a draw. It suits me because I see a very tense match, where a goal or a mistake could decide it, and I find it hard to imagine the two sides settling for a draw if the score changes early on. Juventus are tough at home and compete well, but Benfica have the perfect plan to take a 0-1/1-2 win if Juve rush or break down.

BetoThe bold one

Benfica to win. Odds 4.20

Here I’m going to take a chance. And it’s not because I’m against Juve “just because”: it’s because of the match-up. Benfica has already beaten them recently, they’re coming in with the final chip, and if the game gets stuck (which is quite likely given the context), Mourinho usually knows how to play it by the clock and details. Risk? A lot, of course: Juve are tough at home and market logic makes them favourites. That’s precisely why the odds are so high. If you want a pick with value and tactical reasoning behind it, this is the one that appeals to me the most.