Lanús vs Atlético Mineiro (Copa Sudamericana): odds and picks 22.11.2025

Copa Sudamericana 2025 Final on neutral ground: Defensores del Chaco Stadium (Asunción), on Saturday 22nd November.

It is a final with a classic aroma between Argentina and Brazil: Lanús, very reliable in knockout stages, against an Atlético Mineiro with more individual talent and recent experience in continental finals.

In my view, the match is defined by three factors:

1. Lanús’s current form, chaining solid results in the league and Sudamericana;
2. Atlético Mineiro’s offensive capacity, coming off scoring 3+ goals several times in Série A;
3. The context of a single-leg final, with nerves and a referee with a card-happy profile like Piero Maza.

I expect a tense duel, of medium pace, where whoever strikes first will have half the title in their pocket.

Lanús

Lanús arrives very serious. In the domestic league, they are in the upper part (second in their zone, with 30 points and a 9-3-4 balance), and in recent weeks they have mixed good results in the Primera with the management of the Sudamericana.

They come from a 3-1 against Atlético Tucumán, 2-0 against Godoy Cruz, 2-1 against San Lorenzo and tight draws or defeats away, which reflects a competitive team with goals, especially in Argentina.

Their path in the cup speaks volumes about their profile: solid and reliable in knockouts. They have left Central Córdoba (two series on penalties), Fluminense (2-1 aggregate with much tactical maturity) and Universidad de Chile (3-2 aggregate, with 1-0 in the second leg at La Fortaleza) on the way. It is a Lanús that does not need to steamroll; they know how to suffer and win by the minimum when required.

In terms of names, the offensive weight passes through Marcelino Moreno (goals and final ball) and a block that arrives a lot from the second line. In defence, the team has shown itself to be strong in closed matches: they concede, but rarely fall apart. In single-match finals, that capacity to compete in every duel and manage the clock is usually worth gold.

Keys that I mark for Lanús:

• Keep the match long and even, without crazy exchanges of blows.
• Load play on the outside to test the Brazilian defence with crosses from the flank.
• Gain profit from set-pieces.

Atlético Mineiro

Atlético Mineiro arrives with significant competitive poise: they come from playing the 2024 Libertadores final and now repeat a scenario of maximum continental demand.

In the 2025 Brasileirão they are mid-table (10th, with 11 wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats), but their recent results show a team with goals: 3-0 against Bahia, 4-2 against Sport Recife, 3-3 with Fortaleza and a 2-0 defeat at Bragantino in a stretch very loaded with matches.

Their path in the Sudamericana is also potent: a solvent group stage and then very serious knockouts, eliminating Godoy Cruz, Bolívar and Independiente del Valle, always with the capacity to score away from home and manage advantages in the second leg. The 4-2 aggregate in the semi-finals confirms that, when switched on, they have more bite than the continental average.

The “Galo” combines experience and quality up top. Their league data speaks of a team that scores quite a bit, but also concedes, especially away from home, where they suffer defensively. For me, the key is in how they manage spaces after losing possession: when they are split, they suffer; when they are organised, their talent decides.

Their weapons:

• Strikers with goals and capacity to attack space.
• Deep full-backs with offensive weight.
• More squad depth than Lanús, something that weighs in a final with possible extra time.

If they manage to impose their rhythm and do not despair if they do not score early, Atlético Mineiro has a higher footballing ceiling. The risk is falling into a match of low rhythm and continuous duels, where Lanús usually takes advantage.

Referee: Piero Maza (Chile)

The one in charge of the final is Piero Maza, an international Chilean referee with wide experience in CONMEBOL competitions. He is an official known for his card-happy tendency, with averages around 5 yellow cards per match and close to 0.3 sendings-off per game.

This, in a final between Argentines and Brazilians, anticipates a heated match if the slightest spark appears. For card markets, lines like +4.5 or +5.5 usually have value. He is a referee accustomed to handling pressure, protests and physical duels.

My predictions for Lanús vs Atlético Mineiro

The bookies mark a very even match, with a slight Brazilian advantage: Lanús 3.00–3.20, Draw 3.00, Atlético Mineiro 2.40–2.60.

BeniThe conservative one

Double chance Atlético Mineiro (X2). Odds 1.35

It fits for me because Atlético Mineiro has more individual talent and more variants. Lanús competes very well, but suffers if the match opens up.The X2 is the most logical way to back the favourite without requiring them to win in 90 minutes.

BetoThe bold one

Atlético Mineiro wins in 90 minutes. Odds 2.60

The Galo arrives with more recent goals and more ways to break the match. Lanús is solid, but has passed complicated stretches in defence against rivals with punch. The mental component also adds up: Atlético MG is a team with more recent experience in big finals.

As an even more aggressive alternative: Atlético Mineiro wins + Under 3.5 goals, which usually goes to 3.00–3.50 in Bet Builder.