Littler vs De Decker (PDC World Masters): odds and picks 30.01.2026

This is one of those ties where the market screams “banker”, but the World Masters set-play format always leaves the door slightly open: best-of-5 sets, and each set is best-of-3 legs. That’s a short runway, and it rewards fast starters, sharp doubling, and anyone who can nick an early break and protect it.

From a betting angle, I’m treating this match as a clash between Littler’s scoring ceiling and De Decker’s big-stage resilience. The key isn’t whether Luke can outscore him (he usually can), it’s whether Mike can stay close enough in legs 1–2 of each set to turn it into a doubles battle—because short formats can flip quickly when a couple of darts at double decide a set.

Luke Littler

I’ve followed Littler closely over the last year, and what stands out now is how quickly he’s moved from “phenomenon” to week-in, week-out benchmark. He arrives at the World Masters carrying the weight of expectation and the confidence of recent major success, and when he settles early you can feel opponents tightening up under the sheer volume of scoring.

Tactically, Littler’s edge is simple: he wins legs in bursts. He stacks 140s and 180s, forces opponents into checkouts from awkward ranges, and that pressure shows up at the doubles—often not because his opponent can’t hit them, but because they’re constantly throwing second. In a three-leg set, that’s massive: one loose leg on your own throw and the set is basically gone.

The one caution for Luke backers is exactly what makes this tournament interesting: you don’t need to be the better player for long—just for two legs. So if his doubles wobble early, you can get a slightly messy set before the class usually asserts itself. The encouraging bit is that when these two have met on a big stage, Littler’s overall scoring and control of legs has been noticeably higher, which is the sort of edge that tends to repeat.

Mike De Decker

De Decker isn’t a throwaway underdog. He’s already proven he can handle TV pressure and win when the lights are bright, and that matters in a format where composure across two or three critical darts can be the difference between taking a set or losing it. He’s at his best when the match turns into a rhythm contest rather than a straight power-scoring shootout.

For Mike, the route is quite clear: hold throw, keep sets tight, and punish any lapse. He doesn’t need to outscore Luke for 25 legs; he needs two legs in a set, repeated enough times to keep the match alive. That means leaning into smart pace, tidy set-up shots, and being ruthless when he gets a look at double. If he can land one or two timely big checkouts, he can absolutely nick a set and make it uncomfortable.

The concern, though, is that if he’s not matching Luke’s scoring, he can end up living off scraps—late looks at doubles, low-quality finishes, and a lot of “nearly” visits. Against Littler, “nearly” tends to become “gone” very fast, especially in this short-set structure where there’s little time to recover within a set.

My picks for Littler vs De Decker

BeniThe conservative one

Littler — Most 180s. Odds 1.62

I prefer this to the outright match price because the win market is often too short to be interesting. “Most 180s” ties directly to Littler’s most reliable advantage: maximums and sustained heavy scoring. In best-of-3-leg sets, a couple of 180s can swing an entire set by forcing a break opportunity or by taking the opponent out of the leg before they even get a proper shot at a finish. Even if Luke has a slightly patchy doubling set, the scoring profile usually shows up.

BetoThe bold one

Correct score — Littler 3–1. Odds 3.70

This is the “value narrative” bet for me. I can see De Decker nicking a set—he’s got the temperament, and the format makes it easier for an underdog to pinch a set with one hot spell. But over five sets, I still trust Littler’s baseline scoring to win enough key legs, and I like the idea that Mike takes one set without ever truly taking control of the match. If Littler starts cleanly, I’d expect him to keep a steady grip, with one set slipping through if his doubles cool for a moment.