Liverpool vs PSG (Champions League): odds and bets 14.04.2026

The second leg at Anfield comes with a context that changes everything: PSG arrive with a 2-0 lead following a first leg in Paris where they were clearly the better side (they controlled possession and Liverpool didn’t even manage a shot on target). That forces Arne Slot’s side to go all out from the first minute, and when Liverpool are forced to attack with so many players, two things emerge: a high tempo and dangerous counter-attacks (for both sides).

The key, for me, lies in whether Liverpool can score early without panicking. If the 1-0 comes before half-time, the stadium switches to ‘comeback’ mode and PSG start to have doubts. If PSG weather that initial onslaught, the most likely scenario is that they’ll find huge spaces behind the defence and the game will open up – which is exactly where Luis Enrique usually causes damage with his attackers exploiting space.

Liverpool

Liverpool arrive with their pride dented by the first leg: losing 2-0 without a single shot on target is not something you usually see from a club with this European pedigree. They’re also coming off an inconsistent run; in recent weeks they’ve had mixed results, including some heavy defeats away from home. At Anfield, however, the team usually changes the dynamic: they press high up the pitch, play more direct football and feel comfortable in end-to-end matches.

Tactically, I expect a more ‘recognisable’ Liverpool: high pressing, aggressive full-backs and plenty of runs into the box. But watch out, because that very boldness leaves open channels behind if the initial press isn’t perfect. If PSG break through two lines cleanly, Liverpool could suffer greatly defending against runs towards their goal.

As for the line-up, there’s one key factor to consider: Alisson is out (confirmed absence), and that’s a major blow because in knockout ties like this you need a goalkeeper who can keep you in the game when the opposition have 2-3 clear-cut chances. There are also long-term absences such as Conor Bradley and Endo, and Curtis Jones is a doubt due to a niggle. And another important detail: some injury reports mention Salah has a muscle problem, so I’m treating him as ‘to be monitored’ until the official line-up is announced; if he plays, Liverpool gain a threat in the final third, and if not, their plan becomes more predictable.

PSG

PSG arrive as they are right now: a team with bite, control and a cutting edge that doesn’t need 15 chances to hurt you. In the first leg they were dominant: loads of possession, excellent pressing after losing the ball and a sense that the 2-0 scoreline didn’t do them justice. With that advantage, they don’t need to go all out at Anfield: a solid performance, without giving away silly balls, will do.

What I like most about this PSG side for the second leg is their ability to choose how to play. If Liverpool press, they can break directly with very quick attackers. If Liverpool sit a bit deeper, PSG know how to control the game with Vitinha and co., slow the tempo down and make you chase the ball. And when the opposition start to open up out of desperation, PSG usually punish them with one or two textbook counter-attacks.

In terms of absentees, Fabián Ruiz is a key loss and Barcola is a doubt due to a sprained ankle (this could affect the distribution of playing time on the wing). Even so, PSG have the depth to stick to the plan: if Barcola is out, the approach remains the same, only the type of threat changes.

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

The referee will be Maurizio Mariani (Italy). In this 2025/26 Champions League campaign, his statistics regarding cards are quite clear: 5 matches and 22 yellow cards (a high average, around 4–5 per match) and he has also already shown a red card in the competition. He is a referee who does not usually ‘let things slide’ if the match heats up, and in a tense second leg (Liverpool pushing forward, PSG stifling counter-attacks and managing the tempo) that often translates into bookings for blocking counter-attacks and protests.

Useful fact: he has already refereed Liverpool in the Champions League this season (group stage) and also PSG in another group match, so he is no ‘stranger’ to either side. For me, the best angle here is to expect a match with tactical fouls, especially if Liverpool score early.