Liverpool vs Real Madrid (Champions League): odds and picks 04.11.2025

Champions League match (group stage, Matchday 4) on Tuesday, 4 November 2025, at Anfield.

A top-level clash is coming up with both teams in great form: Real Madrid 3-0-0 in the UCL and Liverpool 2-0-1 in the first three European matchdays.

In the run-up to the match, Liverpool’s last five results were: a 2-0 win against Aston Villa, a 0-3 defeat against Crystal Palace, a 2-3 defeat at Brentford, a 5-1 win at Frankfurt and a 1-2 defeat against Manchester United. Madrid has strung together victories with a 4-0 win against Valencia, a 2-1 win against Barcelona, a 1-0 win against Juventus, a 1-0 win at Getafe and a 3-1 win against Villarreal.

In recent history, the Reds ended Madrid’s winning streak with a 2-0 victory on 27/11/2024, although the overall balance remains in Madrid’s favour.

Liverpool

They arrive competitive and with Anfield as a factor (capacity 61,276 and decisive atmosphere). Alisson (hamstring) is on the injury list, along with Giovanni Leoni, Curtis Jones, Jeremie Frimpong and Stefan Bajčetić; Alexander Isak is also doubtful. With Kelleher in goal, I expect an aggressive 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 in terms of pressing after losing possession and width with Salah and attacking the flanks, with more runs from Szoboszlai or Mac Allister from the edge of the box.

In Champions League 24/25, they already showed their ability to beat Madrid (2-0) with Slot optimising pressure and transitions. This season, they have beaten Eintracht and Atlético (with a goal in injury time) and lost to Galatasaray (1-0). Key factors I value:

• High tempo in the first 20 minutes to strike before Madrid stabilises its possession.
• Take advantage of set pieces against an opponent with defensive weaknesses.
• Protect the right-back’s back if Vinícius attacks that lane. If the game opens up, Liverpool have enough offensive volume to sustain BTTS and Over 2.5 due to their pattern of attacks.

Real Madrid

They arrive with competitive authority and 9/9 points in the league phase, plus a solid domestic run with wins against Barcelona (2-1) and Valencia (4-0). Significant absences in defence: Dani Carvajal underwent knee surgery and is out for the rest of 2025; Rüdiger and Alaba are also expected to be absent, forcing Militão and Huijsen to be paired with young full-backs (Álvaro Carreras or Fran García).

On the plus side, Xabi Alonso’s system is very recognisable: 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Bellingham coming in as the third man and Mbappé/Vinícius attacking the weak side.

In this Champions League season, they have won all their matches, conceding only one goal: Marseille, Kairat Almaty and Juventus. Key points:

• Surviving the first wave of pressure from Anfield.
• Playing vertically after winning the ball back on the left flank.
• Management of areas with a decisive Courtois. In the last five games, Madrid have not conceded in three and show a tendency towards low scores if their positional plan works.

Referee: István Kovács (Romania)

An international referee with a balanced approach to managing intensity. This could be relevant to the pace of the game and the permissiveness of physical contact. If you are planning on card markets, it is advisable to wait for confirmation of the final line-ups and lines to adjust.

My predictions for Liverpool vs Real Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.40.

High tempo, plenty of chances for both sides and a recent history of open games. With elite forwards and depleted defences, the scenario of 3 or more goals is the most statistically stable. If the odds drop below 1.35, an interesting alternative: BTTS Yes at around 1.50–1.60.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid to win (1X2 – 2). Odds 2.60.

I am leaning towards 2 for three reasons:

• Greater stability in recent results and upward momentum.
• Differential punch in transitions with Mbappé and Vinícius.
• A Liverpool side that, with Kelleher and occasional absences, may concede more if the initial pressure is not effective.

Compatible scores: 1-2 or 1-3. If you prefer to play it safe, Madrid DNB (draw no bet) is around 1.90–2.05.