Maestrelli vs Djokovic (Australian Open): odds and picks 22.01.2026

A duel in Melbourne with a seemingly clear script: Francesco Maestrelli arrives on a high after the qualifying rounds and excited to face a legend, but he will be up against Novak Djokovic, the great historical dominator of the Australian Open. The difference in experience, tactical reading and moment management is enormous. Even so, it is worth keeping an eye on the start: if the Italian comes out loose and finds many first serves, he may be able to scrape together a few competitive points before the Serbian puts the match into “control mode”.

Date, time and where to watch Maestrelli – Djokovic

• Tournament: Australian Open (Grand Slam)
• Date: Wednesday 21 January
• Venue: Melbourne Park (Melbourne, Australia)
• Surface: Hard court

Maestrelli vs Djokovic: odds on the winner of the match

Maestrelli’s current form

Maestrelli arrives without any real pressure, which is a double-edged sword: it frees him up to hit without fear, but it also puts him to the test when the match gets tight and he has to make decisions in the heat of the moment. On hard courts, he can sustain rallies, but against Djokovic that’s not enough: you need consistent quality and a sustained aggressive plan. If the Italian wants to compete, he must serve very well, take the initiative with his first shot and accept that there will be many points where ‘doing everything right’ may not be enough.

Key factors

In a match like this, the mental aspect weighs heavily. Maestrelli has the advantage of playing with the label of “nothing to lose”, and that can help him start loose, especially if he strings together first serves and gets on the scoreboard. The problem is that Djokovic punishes any hesitation: if the Italian rushes when he shouldn’t, the error count goes up and the match slips away without him realising it. In terms of surface, the hard court in Australia rewards the serve and the first shot, but it also demands quick and accurate decision-making. The underdog’s small window of opportunity is usually in a very tight set (tiebreak or 6-4) before the favourite adjusts his reading of the game and starts to read his opponent’s pattern of play.

Djokovic’s current form

Djokovic, in Melbourne, is usually synonymous with control. It is the type of match he handles professionally: he raises his level when necessary, minimises errors and suffocates you with his return and consistency. If he is physically stable, he will usually close out the match quickly, because he does not need to ‘shine’ to dominate an opponent with no experience in high-pressure situations. His priority in these rounds is clear: to advance without any scares, without extra wear and tear, and to build up his confidence.

Key factors

Tactical reading and emotional management are key here. Djokovic is a specialist in disrupting plans: he takes away your time, forces you to hit one more ball and, when he identifies your pattern, he dismantles it. On hard courts, his competitive “floor” is extremely high: even on an off day, he wins through placement, consistency and intelligence at key moments. Psychology can decide the tone of the match: if Djokovic takes an early lead, the match becomes a formality, because Maestrelli will have to take more risks and that multiplies the mistakes. In addition, in Australia, the Serbian turns each round into a mission; when the opponent is inexperienced, he usually closes sets with a break and without giving them any breathing space.

Head-to-head statistics: Maestrelli vs Djokovic

There are no previous relevant head-to-head matches between the two on the main circuit, so the most useful comparison is their competitive profile (ranking, experience and reliability under pressure).

Conclusion: there is a huge gap in experience, consistency and ability to adjust during the match. Maestrelli can compete in stretches if he serves well and plays aggressively, but in terms of reliability and winning patterns, Djokovic is several steps above.

Our prediction(s) for Maestrelli – Djokovic

BeniThe conservative one

Djokovic wins 3-0. Odds 1.30

If Djokovic is even slightly focused, it should be a controlled match: solid serving, few opportunities conceded and a pace that will suffocate the Italian. In a Grand Slam, the Serb usually avoids scares against opponents with no experience on the big stage. A 3-0 win fits the most likely scenario: one break per set, without the need for high-risk exchanges.

BetoThe bold one

Djokovic wins 3-1 and Maestrelli takes one set. Odds 3.00

The ‘crazy’ value is at the start: a fearless debutant, a good first serve percentage and a set decided by small details (tiebreak or an isolated break). Djokovic has room to adjust, raise his level a notch on the rest and then close out without drama. It’s not the most likely scenario, but it’s the one that pays best if you’re looking for high odds and are willing to accept variance in a five-set match.