Manchester United vs West Ham (Premier League): odds and picks 04.12.2025

Thursday’s match at Old Trafford (4 December) is key to United’s European aspirations and West Ham’s survival. Rúben Amorim’s side are 7th in the Premier League with 21 points (6-3-4) and clearly on the up, especially at home: 4 wins and 2 defeats, 11-7 in goals and a very positive recent run at their stadium.

West Ham, on the other hand, are in a very poor state: 17th with 11 points (3-2-8), one of the worst defences in the league (27 goals conceded, 2.08 per game) and only one clean sheet in 13 games. In addition, they are without their creative brain Lucas Paquetá, suspended after his red card against Liverpool, which takes away a lot of their bite in the final third. The context, for me, is very clear: Old Trafford pushing, United favourites, but with an opponent that tends to leave games open as soon as the lines break.

Manchester United

United have gone from a very shaky start to a scenario of relative stability. In the Premier League, they have a record of 6-3-4, 21 points, 21 goals scored and 20 conceded, with a recent run of W-D-D-L-W that reflects improvement but still with some stumbles. The most positive aspect is their performance at Old Trafford: 4 wins and 2 defeats, +4 goal difference (11-7) and four wins in their last five home league games.

Amorim has been settling into his hybrid 4-2-3-1/3-4-3 formation, with fairly aggressive pressing and a lot of importance placed on the wingers. Bruno Fernandes is in good form (goals and prominence in set pieces) and Garnacho has earned himself the role of agitator from the wing, something that is also reflected in the advanced models. The team, in general, averages around 1.5–1.6 goals per game and generates a good volume of chances, although at times they lack the ability to ‘kill off’ games.

The big problem remains the injury list: Šeško, Cunha and Maguire are all injured or out, forcing rotation up front and at the back. Even so, the squad is deeper this year and Amorim has compensated by giving minutes to young players. The preview points to a starting eleven with Lammens in goal, a standard defence, a physical double pivot and Bruno behind the number 9.

In terms of feelings, I see a United side that lets loose at home: they usually start very strongly and spend most of the game in the opposition’s half. The risk lies in losing possession on the break and misalignments when the team splits, but against a West Ham side that is so fragile at the back, if they set the pace from the start, they should create a lot of chances.

West Ham

West Ham are in ‘yellow alert’ mode. Their record is 3-2-8, 11 points, 17th place, with 27 goals conceded in 13 games (2.08 per game) and only 8% of games ending in a clean sheet. Away from home, they concede 1.67 goals per game, concede in 83% of their away games and suffer particularly in the second half.

In attack, they are not as bad as the table suggests: they average 1.15 goals per game and usually score, with Bowen, Callum Wilson and Paquetá leading the line when available. However, for this match, they will be without Paquetá due to suspension, which will cost them in terms of composure, final passes and dribbling.

Tactically, I expect West Ham to be very reactive: a low block, strong centre-backs in duels, cautious full-backs and a physical double pivot. Bowen and Summerville provide width, with Wilson as the main striker. The data shows that they are a team of “crazy” matches: they average 3.23 total goals per game and concede more than 1.5 goals in 77% of their matches.

Without Paquetá, they are likely to struggle to keep possession at Old Trafford, be forced to defend deep and end up conceding multiple clear chances.

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

The designated referee is Andrew Kitchen, one of the newest referees in the Premier League. This season, he has refereed two league matches, two Carabao Cup matches and several Championship matches, accumulating 38 yellow cards, one red card for two bookings and two penalties. He is a medium-discipline referee: neither too card-happy nor overly permissive.

He has no notable history with United or West Ham, so there are no clear patterns. I expect a match with 4-6 yellow cards in total: United dominating, West Ham defending and resorting to tactical fouls. I don’t see him as particularly prone to red cards unless the score gets out of hand.

My predictions for Manchester United – West Ham

BeniThe conservative one

Double chance Manchester United or draw (1X) + over 1.5 total goals. Odds 1.50

I like this combination because United are clear favourites, but the odds for 1X alone are very low. Adding over 1.5 goals makes it a comfortable odds. United have won 4 out of 6 at home and almost always score. West Ham are a guarantee of an open game: they average 3.23 goals per game, concede 2.08 per game and concede 2 or more goals in 77% of their games. It’s hard to imagine a 0-0 or 1-0 away win. I imagine a 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 type of match. United should not lose at home and the total goals should easily exceed the 1.5 line. Ideal pick for accumulators or medium-high stakes.

BetoThe bold one

Manchester United to win and both teams to score (1 & BTTS – Yes). Odds 3.00

Here I’m going for big odds. I think United should win, but I’m not confident they’ll keep a clean sheet: they concede a lot, and West Ham usually score even in defeats. Both teams tend to play open games with lots of goals.

If the 1 is around 1.60–1.70 and the BTTS is 1.70, combined they usually go up to around 2.8–3.0. It makes sense: United creating a lot with Bruno and Garnacho, but leaving some transitions or set pieces for West Ham to score. Scores like 2-1, 3-1 or 3-2 fit this script perfectly.

It’s a low-stake pick, but good value if you’re expecting a back-and-forth match.