Newcastle United vs Athletic Club (Champions League): odds and picks 05.11.2025

Champions League clash (league phase, Matchday 4) on Wednesday 5 November 2025, at St James’ Park.

They arrive with different trajectories in the group stage table: Newcastle 2-0-1 (6 points, +6 GD) and Athletic 1-0-2 (3 points, −3 GD) after three matchdays. At home, Howe’s side are on a strong run: four consecutive wins at their stadium in all competitions, with nine goals scored and one conceded in that stretch.

Athletic got back on track in the UCL with a 3-1 win over Qarabag, after losing to Arsenal and Dortmund, and now face a very demanding fixture in terms of pace and atmosphere.

Newcastle United

They have been on a clear upward trajectory since the start of the European campaign: they thrashed Union SG 4-0 and have maintained a sustained offensive performance. In the first three Champions League matchdays, they have scored 8 goals and conceded 2, with Anthony Gordon as the standout player (4 goals) and Harvey Barnes contributing to the attack.

I expect Newcastle to apply high pressure and pace down the wings to punish Atlético’s weak side, creating second chances near the area. At St James’ Park, the pattern is clear: an aggressive start, a pause if they take the lead and a lot of threat from set pieces (tight crosses to the near post).

Key factors I value:

• Maintain intensity after losing possession.
• Flood the area with crosses from the wings.
• Avoid fouls in front of goal, where Guruzeta tends to take advantage of second balls.

Athletic Club

They breathed a sigh of relief with the 3-1 win over Qarabag (two goals from Guruzeta and one from Navarro) and have scored four goals, although they have conceded seven in three European matches.

The midfield block works well with pressure after winning the ball and quick transitions to the wings, but suffers when it has to defend repeated crosses and second plays for long periods.

To compete at St. James’ Park, they need:

• Clean ball movement to avoid being pinned back.
• Cover the far post on crosses.
• Exploit offensive set pieces.

If they push forward, they can make the game more congested; if they sit back, they will be forced into a more open exchange.

My predictions for Newcastle vs Athletic

BeniThe conservative one

Newcastle to win (1X2 – 1). Odds 1.60.

The St. James’ Park factor (four consecutive wins, 9:1 in goals), their best European goal difference (+6) and an Athletic side that concedes long stretches under pressure away from home. If you prefer greater security, Newcastle DNB (Asian 0.0) is around 1.30–1.40.

BetoThe bold one

Newcastle wins & Over 2.5 goals. Odds 2.90.

If Newcastle scores first, Athletic will have to stretch themselves and the game will speed up. Scores like 2-1 or 3-1 fit perfectly.

Similar alternative: Newcastle -1.0 Asian, around 2.00 (void if they win by one goal). Prepare it with different options depending on how the lines move before the match.