Nigeria vs Morocco (AFCON): odds and bets 14.01.2026

We are looking at an AFCON semi-final that promises to be a great match: Nigeria is on a roll and Morocco, as the host, is managing the pressure of the context and the pace of the tournament very well. The match will be played in Rabat (Prince Moulay Abdellah), a factor that in these stages weighs more than it seems: it pushes, conditions moments and, above all, accelerates the opponent when the match gets stuck.

The key for me is the clash of styles: Nigeria has punch and very vertical transitions; Morocco has more control and automatisms on the wings (Hakimi/Mazraoui) with Brahim Díaz being decisive. In a semi-final, the details matter: the first “silly” loss, a set piece or an early card that changes the plan.

Nigeria

Nigeria arrives in high spirits and, most importantly, with the feel of a serious team: in the quarter-finals, they beat Algeria 2-0 with authority, with Osimhen scoring and Akor Adams finishing. It was not just a routine victory; Nigeria dominated, defended their lead well and conceded few clear chances.

They had already sent out very clear signals along the way: the 3-2 win over Tunisia in the group stage was a warning that they can score even when the game breaks down (and that’s when Osimhen usually comes into his own). And in the round of 16, they crushed Mozambique 4-0, with Osimhen scoring twice and Lookman adding another goal: when Nigeria runs, they destroy you.
What I like about this Nigeria team is the Ndidi–Iwobi–Onyeka triangle to hold and launch: if Iwobi has time to turn, the game is played closer to the Moroccan area. And up front, the Osimhen + Adams duo (with Lookman nearby) forces you to defend in open space, which is uncomfortable even for elite defenders. As a point of caution: there is extra-sporting noise (there was talk of tension between Osimhen and Lookman) and in a semi-final any emotional spark can take its toll.

Morocco

Morocco is competing like a big team: in the quarter-finals, they beat Cameroon 2-0 without too much trouble and with a statistic that I think is worth its weight in gold: Cameroon did not register a single shot on goal, a sign of real defensive control. In addition, Brahim Díaz scored for the fifth consecutive game in the tournament, and that kind of streak in the knockout stages is no coincidence: he is appearing at exactly the right moment.

In the group stage, the 1-1 draw with Mali was a tougher game, with less space, but Morocco managed it without losing sight of their plan and maintained their lead in the group. And in the round of 16, they beat Tanzania by the narrowest of margins (1-0), just the kind of game that prepares you for a close semi-final.
What convinces me most is how they put the pieces together: Bono provides security, Aguerd commands, and on the wings Hakimi/Mazraoui give you clean outlets and depth. Morocco has conceded very little in open play in the tournament, and that fits with what I see: structure, support and few miscues. Keep an eye on Brahim’s fitness, though: he came off with a thigh injury in the quarter-finals (although he scored), and if he’s not 100%, Morocco loses that “bite” between the lines.

Possible XI: Bono; Hakimi, Aguerd, Masina, Mazraoui; El Khannous, El Aynaoui, Saibari; Brahim Díaz, El Kaabi, Ezzalzouli.

Referee: Daniel Nii Laryea

The referee appointed for the semi-final is Ghanaian Daniel Nii Laryea. In terms of his profile, he does not strike me as a ‘card-happy’ referee, but he is consistent: in his matches, he averages approximately 3.04 yellow cards per game (and very occasional red cards).

For this Nigeria-Morocco match, the approach to card betting is conditioned by the context: host + semi-final + Nigeria being very physical in duels and transitions. If the match becomes tense early on, Laryea tends to cut in with yellow cards to maintain control, rather than letting things run their course. I don’t have a reliable and clear record of his direct history of refereeing both teams in previous matches against each other, so I prefer to base my prediction on general trends and the competitive context.

My predictions for Nigeria vs Morocco

BeniThe conservative one

Morocco “Draw No Bet” (draw = void). Odds 1.50

Here I am looking to protect myself from the most likely scenario in a semi-final: an even match that could go down to the wire. Morocco has the home advantage and has been defending with great authority (Cameroon had no shots on goal, and in general very little was conceded in open play). Nigeria is very dangerous up front, but this market gives me some leeway if the match gets bogged down and ends in a draw after 90 minutes. And if Morocco imposes its rhythm on the wings and finds Brahim/El Kaabi in the area, 1-0 / 2-0 is entirely plausible.

BetoThe bold one

Half-time/Full-time — Draw at half-time / Morocco wins at full-time (X/2). Odds 5.50

I like this because it fits a typical knockout pattern: Nigeria usually starts strongly and Morocco, especially at home, can grow into the game as the minutes tick by, adjusting their height and loading the game with crosses and second balls. If Nigeria does not score early (and Morocco withstands the initial onslaught), I think a 0-0 or 1-1 score at half-time is very likely… and a second half where the home crowd and the quality of Brahim/Hakimi will tip the balance. In addition, Nigeria arrives with some recent emotional turmoil, and in tight finals that detail is sometimes noticeable in decisions and management of the final stretch.