Olympiacos vs Real Madrid (Champions League): odds and picks 26.11.2025

A very serious match at Georgios Karaiskakis on Wednesday 26 November: Olympiacos welcomes Real Madrid, who are seventh in the overall Champions League standings with 9 points (3 wins and 1 defeat), while the Greeks have only 2 points after four games and remain at the bottom of the European table.

The context is clear: Olympiacos is relying on its status as a “fortress” at home and its lead in the Greek league, where it has been stringing together solid victories. Madrid, for its part, is looking for a result that will bring it definitively closer to the Top 8 despite numerous defensive losses. I expect a duel with Madrid dominating possession, but with uncomfortable phases due to the intensity of the opponent, the atmosphere and the Greek team’s ability to punish in transition.

Olympiacos

Domestically, Mendilibar’s Olympiacos are in fine form: they lead the Super League with a 2-0 win over AEK, 2-1 over Aris, 3-1 over Kifisia and 3-0 over Atromitos. They concede very few goals and convey a lot of solidity, especially when playing at home, where they press well and are strong in duels.

In Europe, however, the results are very different: 0-0 against Paphos, a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, a heavy 6-1 loss in Barcelona and a 1-1 draw against PSV. Only two points out of a possible twelve and just two goals scored. When the opposition raises its level, the team struggles to hold out defensively for 90 minutes and often ends up suffering.

Mendilibar’s idea is clear: a compact 4-2-3-1, a mid-low block, discipline without the ball, timely pressure and very direct play. Podence, El Kaabi and Taremi are the main threats. Between them, El Kaabi and Taremi have already scored more than a dozen goals this season, alternating between mobility and finishing.

Their strengths include their aggressiveness at home, the energy of their midfield and the punch of their forwards if the opposition loses its shape. Their weaknesses include a tendency to sit too deep near their own area and the problems that were clearly evident in Barcelona, where they conceded six goals after the game broke down.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrive in Athens after a fairly solid Champions League campaign: 2-1 against Marseille, 0-5 against Kairat, 1-0 against Juventus and 1-0 against Anfield. Eight goals scored, two conceded and the feeling of a mature team on the European stage.

They are also doing well in La Liga: 3-1 against Villarreal, 1-0 at Getafe, 4-0 against Valencia and 2-1 against Barcelona, although they are coming off two consecutive draws with a 0-0 at Vallecas and a 2-2 at Elche. They are a very reliable team offensively, but have lost some of their defensive strength in recent weeks.

The main problem is injuries: Militao, Alaba, Carvajal and Mastantuono are unavailable; Tchouameni is still injured and Rüdiger is a doubt. Camavinga is also not 100%. This forces Xabi Alonso to improvise in defence, bringing in young players or converted full-backs, and protecting himself more from possession.

In attack, however, the potential is enormous. Mbappé is in great form, Bellingham is making a constant impact coming from the second line, and Vinícius brings imbalance to the space. In terms of talent, Madrid is far superior, but the injuries at the back and the recent run suggest that they may have moments of suffering.

My predictions for Olympiacos vs Real Madrid

The bookmakers have Madrid as clear favourites: their victory is around 1.35–1.40, a draw is around 5.0–5.5 and an Olympiacos victory is around 7.0–7.5. The market respects the Karaiskakis factor, but considers Madrid to be far superior.

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid wins and less than 4.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.45

I am looking to back the favourite without relying on a high score. Except for the 0-5 in Kazakhstan, Madrid’s European matches have been controlled and low-scoring. Olympiacos, at home, also tends to play close matches in Europe. I can see a 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 or even 0-3 without too many scares. As a combination, it has a very good risk/odds ratio.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid wins by at least 2 goals (handicap -1.5). Odds 2.50

Here I’m going for value. The difference in level is huge and if Madrid strike early, the game could open up. Olympiacos suffer a lot when the opposition is top class, as they showed against Arsenal and Barcelona. If Mbappé, Vinícius or Bellingham find space after the first goal, I think it’s quite feasible that Madrid will extend their lead. The risk is that the atmosphere and defensive absences could lead to a tighter game, but as a high-odds pick, it makes a lot of sense.

In summary: control, a superior Madrid but with periods of suffering, and a competitive Olympiacos at home but far from the European level of the Whites.