Pafos FC vs Villarreal CF (Champions League): odds and picks 05.11.2025

UEFA Champions League 2025-26 match (group stage, Matchday 4) between Pafos FC and Villarreal CF, to be played in Cyprus.

This match-up offers several interesting elements: Pafos are playing at home in their first appearance in this phase after winning the Cypriot league, while Villarreal are desperate for European points.

The data shows that Pafos has conceded a lot of shots (around 66 in three matches) and that Villarreal has struggled to convert in attack.

Pafos FC

Paphos, recent champions of the Cypriot First Division, have reached the Champions League group stage for the first time in their history.

Their European performance reflects a learning process: they have some offensive capability, but they suffer at the back, conceding many clear chances. They have allowed 66 shots on goal in three games, which highlights their defensive problems.

At home, they will try to take advantage of the home field factor against a more experienced opponent, but with the added pressure of having to win. Key factors for Pafos: keep the defensive block compact, prevent Villarreal from dominating possession and look for opportunities on the counterattack.

They will need to hold out for the first 20-30 minutes, when the visitors usually start strongly.

Villarreal CF

Villarreal are in a delicate situation in Europe and need to pick up points to avoid complicating their future.

They are a skilled team that tries to impose their rhythm and control the ball, but they have shown defensive frailties and a lack of punch in some parts of the Champions League (unlike in La Liga). They are expected to have more possession against Paphos, although not necessarily overwhelming dominance if they fail to convert their chances.

The travel, the atmosphere and the Cypriot climate could all influence the course of the match. If Villarreal scores early, it will have room to manage the game; if not, it could find itself in a more complicated match than its superiority on paper suggests.

My predictions for Pafos vs Villarreal

BeniThe conservative one

Villarreal to win. Odds 1.80.

Villarreal has a more complete squad, European experience and the motivation to pick up vital points. Pafos, although competitive, is a newcomer with clear weaknesses in defence.

BetoThe bold one

Villarreal wins and both teams score (BTTS Yes). Odds 2.80

I am confident that Villarreal will score, but I also see opportunities for Pafos to score a goal through drive, enthusiasm and local support. Their defensive fragility and the pace of the game could lead to a duel with chances at both ends.