Palmeiras vs Flamengo (NBA): odds and picks 29.11.2025

Another Brazilian final, and one with a lot of context: Palmeiras comes in with the best attack in the Cup (30 goals in 12 matches), while Flamengo has the most solid defence in the tournament, with only 4 goals conceded.

In a neutral Estadio Monumental in Lima, my feeling is that it will be a very tactical match, with mutual respect and small details deciding the title.

Palmeiras has built its path on its striking power and ability to react: an epic semi-final against LDU (0-3 in Quito and 4-0 in São Paulo), many offensive resources and an Abel Ferreira who already knows what it takes to win finals. Flamengo, on the other hand, has been more pragmatic than usual: few goals scored in the Copa, but brutal control of the penalty areas and a very solid recent run in the Brasileirao under Filipe Luís, where they are leaders with a goal difference of over +50. It is the typical duel in which either side could lift the cup, but I don’t think we will see an all-out exchange of blows.

Palmeiras

Palmeiras comes into the final as the highest-scoring team in this Libertadores: 30 goals in 12 games and a very dominant run except for the blip in Quito. Their overall season is also impressive: more than 70 official games, more than 40 wins and a very high goal difference. In Serie A, they are fighting for the title, with consistent performance and an attack that rarely fails to produce.

They have performed well on neutral ground and are coming off a semi-final where they showed their best form: high pressure, pace, quick transitions and a 4-0 win over LDU that made clear the team’s competitive ceiling. The defensive structure is solid, with Weverton providing a lot of leadership, the Gómez-Murilo pairing providing continuity and full-backs such as Piquerez and Khellven being decisive in the opposition’s half.

In attack, the Vitor Roque–Flaco López duo is one of the main reasons to believe Palmeiras can be champions. López is the season’s top scorer, while Roque is in spectacular form and has the added motivation of ‘getting rid of the thorn in his side’ after losing the final to Athletico in 2022. They are joined by Raphael Veiga, Estêvão and the new arrivals Mauricio, who allow for many variations in the middle.

The weak point? When the game breaks down. If Palmeiras loses its defensive structure, it suffers at the back from full-backs and crosses, something that was already seen in Quito. Even so, Abel Ferreira usually adjusts very well in finals, opting for tight games, strong defensive vigilance and a controlled pace of play.

Flamengo

Flamengo arrives as a more “mature” version of itself: less spectacular than in other years, but tremendously reliable. In the Libertadores, it has had a very stable run: more than half a dozen victories, several draws and very few goals conceded. Its defensive average is elite: it concedes less than half a goal per game in the competition.

In the Brasileirao, they are the solid leaders, with more than 70 goals scored and very few conceded, sustained by very convincing recent performances. Filipe Luís’ influence is very noticeable: a well-organised team that knows when to press high and when to retreat, with prudent full-backs and a balanced midfield thanks to Pulgar and De la Cruz.

De Arrascaeta provides the creativity, while Pedro is the central attacking reference when he is at 100%. On the wings, Bruno Henrique and Luiz Araújo provide speed and attacking threat. It is a team with enormous experience in finals, accustomed to managing the tempo and not falling apart when the opposition presses. In addition, Flamengo has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five and beating their rivals 2-0 at Allianz Parque and 3-1 at the Maracanã this year.

Their risk? Excessive conservatism. When they drop too deep, they become predictable and allow themselves to be dominated for long periods. There are also physical doubts about some key players, but in general they are in great competitive form and have a well-established squad.

Referee: Darío Herrera

Argentinian Darío Herrera will be in charge of the final. He is a referee with a clear tendency to show cards: he averages between 5 and 6 yellow cards per game and usually issues between 4 and 7 cautions in CONMEBOL competitions. He has also refereed important matches in this year’s Libertadores, maintaining his firm approach to contact.

He has already refereed Flamengo matches this year, showing several yellow cards but no red cards, and although he does not have extensive experience with Palmeiras, his profile suggests an intense match with frequent disciplinary sanctions. Therefore, lines of over 4.5 or over 5.5 cards are quite logical.

My predictions for Palmeiras vs Flamengo (Libertadores Final)

BeniThe conservative one

Under 2.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.50.

This seems perfect for a final like this. Flamengo comes into the match with extraordinary defensive statistics and low-scoring matches throughout the Libertadores. Palmeiras, despite having the best attack, tends to get into tighter matches when facing strong defensive structures. Furthermore, South American finals tend to be slow-paced, with a lot of mutual respect and few risks taken. Only a very early goal could break the script.

BetoThe bold one

Draw at the end of 90 minutes. Odds 3.10

If you’re looking for high odds, this is my favourite pick. A draw seems like a very plausible outcome. Flamengo manages finals very well without rushing, and Palmeiras tends to be patient even when the match is evenly matched. If the match is 0-0 or 1-1 at the 75th minute, I do not expect either team to lose their composure. Both would rely on extra time rather than give away space. Therefore, I see very interesting value in those odds around 3.00.