PSG vs Flamengo (International Cup): odds and picks 17.12.2025

PSG and Flamengo face each other in the Intercontinental Cup final in what, for me, is one of the most interesting matches of the year outside of the usual competitions. Not only does it pit two champions from different continents against each other, but also two very different approaches to the game: PSG’s control and high pressure versus a Flamengo side that is much more competitive in open contexts and with real match tempo.

I believe the match will be decided by very specific details. PSG go straight to the final, while Flamengo have already had to compete and win previous matches, something that usually makes a difference in this type of tournament. In addition, the physical condition and injuries in the Parisian defence could balance a match that, on paper, has a clear favourite but which I do not see as being as one-sided as many people think.

PSG

PSG arrive as European champions and with the reputation of being a very tactically disciplined team. In recent weeks, they have alternated between very dominant performances and more sluggish matches, but in general they maintain a clear approach: high possession, pressing after losing the ball and very structured attacks. They have recently recorded some big wins, which shows that when they take the lead, they tend to break games open with ease.

However, it is not all good news. Defensively, they are a little short: Hakimi is unavailable and Marquinhos is not at full fitness, which reduces their leadership and clean play from the back. This forces Luis Enrique to adjust his line-up and may make the team a little more vulnerable in transitions. Even so, I think the midfield with Vitinha, Neves and Fabián is one of the most reliable at the moment in terms of controlling the tempo.

In attack, PSG has a lot of dynamite on the wings. Barcola and Kvaratskhelia provide constant overlap and pin down the full-backs, allowing for second-line attacks. If PSG manages to get close to the opposition’s area and play in the opposition’s half, it should generate enough chances to win the match. The key will be not to concede dangerous losses that allow Flamengo to run.

Flamengo

Flamengo comes into this tournament with much more “competitive life”. It has overcome previous rounds, won demanding matches and that gives it an extra boost of confidence. In recent matches, it has looked solid, with a positive run of form and the feeling that it knows how to compete even when it does not dominate possession.

Tactically, it is a very well-organised team. The double pivot is essential to balance the team and free up De Arrascaeta, who for me is Flamengo’s big difference maker. When he receives the ball between the lines and can turn, the Brazilian team becomes very dangerous. It does not need many chances to do damage.

In defence, Flamengo knows how to retreat and protect its area, although it can suffer if forced to defend for many minutes at a time. If it manages to make the game stop-start, with fouls, interruptions and quick transitions, it will have many chances to unsettle PSG. In addition, it has the advantage of having already adapted to the setting and context of the tournament.

My predictions for PSG vs Flamengo

BeniThe conservative one

PSG to win (1X2). Odds 1.62

My most logical bet is a straight PSG win. In terms of individual quality and ability to control the game, the Parisian side is a step above. If they manage to take the lead, I think Flamengo will struggle to defend so close to their area. It’s not a very low odds, but I think it’s adequate for a relatively safe prediction.

BetoThe bold one

Flamengo to win (1X2). Odds 5.50

 Here I am looking for pure value. These odds seem very high to me for a team that is in good form, confident and with players capable of deciding a match in a single move. If PSG suffer from defensive injuries and Flamengo manage to score first, the script could become very uncomfortable for the French. It’s not a bet to go all in on, but it is a very interesting option to try with a low stake in a final that could have a surprise in store.